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blackwinter replied Jul 22, 2018Usdtry forecast become more complicated for me after Trump's verbal intervention last Thursday and Friday (probably he will continue to balance Yuan etc. devaluation)..i hope CB raise interest rates on 24th July then we see down movement in usdtry.. ...
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blackwinter replied Jul 22, 2018Do you trade gbpaud ? Weekly and daily charts suggest some sell opportunity to me till 1.75 from 1.77...do you agree that ??
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blackwinter replied Jul 17, 2018At last, usdtry decide to move..it is going down..now 4.79..good..hope continue down following days then i can go long at safer levels after CB meeting..interestingly, it broke down when usd index going up..usdtry is playing alone

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blackwinter replied Jul 16, 2018Long at 4.8550..see how Edit: closed at 4.84..i ll trade other pairs for a while..it seems until CB rate decision no fun in Try pairs..
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blackwinter replied Jul 16, 2018Central Bank is selling fx forwards..that means, it is selling Us dollar to banks to deliver 1, 3 or 6 months later..it has started this kind of fx sellings at November 2017..it provides fx liquidity in this way..therefore, CB also is seeing and ...
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blackwinter replied Jul 16, 2018this may be useful to have an idea about usdtry expectations.. i m resending this link...Central Bank is selling fx with 1 month, 3 months and 6 months maturity.. banks are buying Us dollar at a higher prices than now..so most of banks are not ...
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blackwinter replied Jul 16, 2018I think, shorting and holding Try pairs for a long time due to higher swaps is very risky strategy..even if central bank increase the interest rates, that will probably hold currency for a few months at most..there are too many problems in the ...
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blackwinter replied Jul 16, 2018According to website below, average ecpectation is %5,5..i think, it is a low important event..i dont have specific forecast for data..and i think, its effect will be limited.. url
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blackwinter replied Jul 16, 2018Long again at 4.8348..suddenly dropped at last hour..didnt see any news..anyway, i long..100-200 pips maybe today Edit: closed ard 4.84..
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blackwinter replied Jul 16, 2018I m tired of shorting usdtry..annoyingly not dropping.. Edit: closed at 4.85..no more shorting..if drop, i go long..
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blackwinter replied Jul 16, 2018Yes..quite better data..i sold some at 4.83..now us index is rising..eurusd is dropping..when they slow down, usdtry may continue down..we may break 4.80 today..
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blackwinter replied Jul 15, 2018I dont know..but link below says previous unemployment rate %10.1 is lowest since May 2016..so, some increase is more possible..it may cause some up movement in usd try..if bears will take control, probably happen after this data ...
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blackwinter replied Jul 15, 2018Closed my shorts at 4.8522...i will be waiting for Turkish unemployment data which will be out at London open today..then i may sell highs again depends on price action..
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blackwinter replied Jul 13, 2018Fitch Downgrades Turkey to 'BB'; Outlook Negative url This is bad news but i think it is already priced in..so, i dont expext more up because of this news..now around 4.86..i sold some from 4.8640..expecting some down in foolowing ...
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blackwinter replied Jul 12, 2018I hedged at 4.815...and 15m start to drop again
Edit: now going up..4.82 Edit 2: exited hedge buys for a few pips..dont like hedging strategy..usually i lose..but no down momentum now unfortunately..see how Edit 3: closed my shorts too at ...USD/TRY
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blackwinter replied Jul 12, 2018I m short too from 4.79 after b.albayrak's words....not a good entry though..he says cb independence is important...inflation is first priority..bla bla... Hope that i profit this time i m in a losing streak from yesterday.. url
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blackwinter replied Jul 11, 2018President said today in one occasion that "you will see the fall of dollar soon (against lira) and interest rates also will be dropped.".. talked like that around 17.00 (try time)..then already weak lira have fallen more..and usdtry has reached to ...
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blackwinter replied Jul 11, 2018Good reading.. url Btw i saw on news that Moodys will announce credit outlook of country on Friday..that may cause some volatility also..
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