Trading by instinct alone pretty much reduces trading to a process of natural selection - the ones with "better" instincts survive, those that have "worse" trading instincts disappear...But then you start running into one of those self-selection ...

How some traders can trade without chart?

Yes, we can all cut and paste from Wikipedia. That's why I pointed out the KC is a good place to start; if you follow the links at the bottom of the page you c&p'd from, you'll find some more extensions as well...

Dynamic risk allocation

Using Kelley Betting Criterion is probably the best place to start. For those with access to Wikipedia, you can find it here: url For those without access, here's a link to the original paper: url It's from this site: url , which appears to be ...

Dynamic risk allocation

Going into a trade, I make sure that it is completely boxed in everything except maybe time. About the only thing I have found it profitable to let it violate is a take profit point - and then only if it crosses through that level without ...

Knowing when to exit:Trade Failed

It may help to use the longer charts to set your viewpoint (where the trend really is going) and then the shorter ones to determine only entry and exit points. PS, Don't apologize for your english - it's perfectly workable (which is more than I can ...

Trading for living only using daily charts or higher...

I would assume that when they raise rates, they take into account an expected raise in the value of the Kiwi. As long aa the rate of growth in the exchange rate stays within their predicted limits, they're happy. However if everybody jumps on the ...

Why is NZD so strong??

Cio-Cio-San, aka Madama Butterfly (with the score by Lorenz, not Puccini )

Why is NZD so strong??

I got yer point , and went back and rewrote history

Japanese housewives are wrecking the forecasts of big players!

Yes, I got that, so I was just poking a little fun. Hope you don't mind, no harm intended (I should have put a at the end of my post)....

Japanese housewives are wrecking the forecasts of big players!

Ok, you'r talking about the BoJ governors then, I thought he was talking about the houswives,. My mistake

Japanese housewives are wrecking the forecasts of big players!

Define mob.

Japanese housewives are wrecking the forecasts of big players!

Don't know either - but it may be a good idea to keep an eye on the pair for a good short op later tonight, what with major RBNZ intervention two weeks ago Monday, and (IIRC) minor intervention last Monday, which might spook the markets enough to ...

Japanese housewives are wrecking the forecasts of big players!

The equation you are looking at in the link describes the forward rate versus the spot rate for the same currency pair, not the spot rate itself. Ignoring other conditions, under just that formula, the spot rate could actually go wherever it wants; ...

How exchange rate is determined

What I love is the fact that housewives and grandmothers get made fun of for doing what is obvious and sensible, while so-called professionals like over in Bear Stearns or the Nobel Prize winners of LCTM or any other house of financial ill-repute, ...

Japanese housewives are wrecking the forecasts of big players!

I missed this thread completely till it got bumped back up. Have to agree re. Taleb's books including the sequel,"The Black Swan"); he's a wonderful writer.

Poll: Is successful trading more dependent on skill than luck?

First issue is to define the war - I doubt seriously RBNZ is going to try and stop carry trade atm; simply keeping the exchange rate rise non-speculative (i.e. in line with rate differentials) is - over the last week - what they seem to be doing, ...

Um, what just happened in New Zealand?

Usually this has more to do with the interest rates of various ccy's. NZ rates are higher than Japanese, so if you are holding a short position you have to cover th interest spread. Euro rates are lower than US rates, so their it costs you money to ...

Are these fair charges?

If you are looking for a simple measure, just use the difference in bond yeilds. Bond money flows much faster than (say) commodity money, so in the short term FX is often domiinated by it - and more particularly rapid changes to it The basic ...

Value based investments

Yes, it's called macro-economics. Unfortunately economists themselves disagree substantially, and when they really trade their theories in the market they are as likely to blow up substantially (think LCTM, run by a couple of Nobel prize winners) as ...

Value based investments

Can't refuse a reuest from a Linuxist Re. currency relationships; lots of books are available, depending on your pain threshold. Cornelius Luca "Trading the Global Currency Markets" is a great backgrounder, though a little dated and aimed more at ...

Daily GBP/JPY analysis