Submitted Jan 13, 2019|From medium.com

Following the overstretched pessimism in which we started the year, the short-term relief rally in financial markets keeps on going. A combination of factors keeps supporting the overall risk. The constructive headlines coming out of the Sino-US ...

Submitted Jan 8, 2019|From medium.com|1 comment

The US Dollar saved the day by regaining some of its strength, especially against the European block, allowing the DXY to move gently away from a key area of support circa 95.70 as the chart below shows. The residual bouts of risk appetite on the ...

Submitted Jan 3, 2019|From medium.com|1 comment

As we head into European trading, we find ourselves in an environment dominated by US Dollar weakness across the board courtesy of further evidence that the “global slow down” phenomenon is sinking in. The turnaround is a radical shift of dynamics ...

Submitted Dec 18, 2018|From medium.com|11 comments

In the last 24h, the intensity of the US Dollar sell-off gathered further steam. This dynamic clearly indicates that the market is not placing too high its hopes. The behavior in the US Dollar leading up to today’s event communicates the market is ...

Submitted Dec 16, 2018|From medium.com

We saw a very significant spike in the involvement of commercials in the Euro contract. For the most part, the CoT still suggests the Euro contract should remain rotational, as commercials defend the topside with heavy pressure. The absence of large ...

Submitted Nov 20, 2018|From globalprime.com.au|1 comment

If you’d rather just to stick with the key points, this is for you. The market is starting to believe that a pause in the Fed’s rate hike is a plausible scenario judging by the performance in US yields/DXY. Meanwhile, risk conditions are ...

Submitted Nov 18, 2018|From globalprime.com.au

This week’s CoT reading interpretation was somehow distorted by two major macro developments that continue to drive markets. The most recent news on both Brexit and China/US trade negotiations were not captured by the latest CoT data up to Nov 13th. ...

Submitted Nov 15, 2018|From globalprime.com.au|1 comment

Our risk-weighted index has seen a marked recovery off the lows on the back of more positive short-term flows. The rise in US equities (S&P 500), the bounce in US yields and the limited buy-side interest in the US Dollar has led to a microstructure ...

Submitted Nov 12, 2018|From globalprime.com.au

The corrective leg up in the Euro was always going to face quite a challenge to extend past the 1.15 based on the recent action. As reported 2 weeks ago, the initiation of the 2nd cycle down carried what I call a smart-money acceleration as open ...

Submitted Nov 7, 2018|From globalprime.com.au|2 comments

At first glance, the flows seen in equities, money markets, and the US Dollar, reveal a picture that should be fairly constructive to bid up risk currencies while keeping the US Dollar under pressure. Our risk-weighted index has come under pressure ...

Submitted Nov 5, 2018|From globalprime.com.au|1 comment

Currency trading activity on Monday was below its usual standards as markets prepare for the outcome of the US mid-term elections. That’s the event that will be on everyone’s radar heading into the Asian session on Wednesday, that’s the time when ...

Submitted Nov 4, 2018|From globalprime.com.au|3 comments

As markets open for the US mid-term elections week (due Nov 6th), participants must contend with both renewed optimism surrounding a potential Brexit deal and the preparations in case a surprise outcome, other than a split Congress, eventuates. ...

Submitted Nov 1, 2018|From globalprime.com.au

The breakout through the descending trendline in the S&P 500 was materialized in the first hour of cash trading. That was the missing piece to confirm our thesis of a constructive risk environment, encapsulated within a USD strength context, as per ...