You'll get there eventually, just keep on keeping on. All I meant by compression was consolidation. I mentioned standard deviation as an example of seeing consolidation numerically. If you see SD falling, it tells you that volatility is settling ...

Order Flow - Finding cluster of stops on chart

Hi Carnegie, As you know, there is no true order information available for spot fx aside from the market depth or level ll on the interbank. Unless you're a bank or a big player, you're not going to get access to this information. I would agree from ...

Order Flow - Finding cluster of stops on chart

I beleive you are describing high frequency dealing (HFD), and yes time would be a critical factor in such a system. I'm more into trading obscure patterns that occur within price data, and also orderflow trading that leans on data about orders that ...

Trading Prerequisites - Doing it Right

Hey OldQuant, Thank you for chiming in. You're just about right with the wind blown hair idea. I've had an interesting last couple weeks experimenting with differant applications, half the time I have no idea what I'm looking at. I feel in many ways ...

Trading Prerequisites - Doing it Right

Yes. For example, =if(and(today's high> yesterdays high, OR(tomorrows high is> than today's high, the following day's high is >today's high, ect...)), 1,"") I can test this sort of thing several days into the future to see what I think of as "latent ...

Trading Prerequisites - Doing it Right

Thanks, Adal. Looks interesting. One of the ironies in learning R is that I've gotten so far away from charts in the last few months, while R is heralded for the powerful graphics. I've continued studying R, and have a long way to go, but so far It ...

Trading Prerequisites - Doing it Right

Thanks for the discussion, gentlemen. Most of it is whizzing over the top of my head at close to the speed of light, but when I know more I'll understand what in the heck you guys are talking about. I've been studying and experimenting with R, all ...

Trading Prerequisites - Doing it Right

Well, I apologize if I gave the impression that I thought programming was easy or wouldn't take long. We've been talking about the willingness to work hard. Maybe to save time you skipped to the end of the thread to see what all the buzz was about ...

Trading Prerequisites - Doing it Right

Craig, One more thing. I wanted to thank you for the links to arxiv.org. I have observed what the second link explains-- in a simplistic sense. I've seen non-institutional professional traders write programs to detect where large orders have been ...

Trading Prerequisites - Doing it Right

Hey Craig, I have some questions for you. I was talking with a programmer friend of mine yesterday who writes programs for banks, he's not a trader. He had a general knowledge of trading and he suggested that I download Microsoft SQL 2008, as well ...

Trading Prerequisites - Doing it Right

Wow, Leon, Bravo! What an honest, humble post. I agree and can empathize with everything you said. I also came into the trading world thinking I could easily turn a profit, "how hard could it be?" I was asking myself. Well... I'm somewhat of a ...

Trading Prerequisites - Doing it Right

As far as the interbank is concerned, you're a little off. You're right in that central bankers play a role in moving the markets, but the real players in the short term (>3months), is the financial customers of large dealing banks, mainly large ...

How to keep in faith with a statistically profitable system?

Interesting thread, hits home with all I'm currently working on. I have a math specific question here regarding the confidence interval calculation used in statistics to show how far off an observed population proportion is to the actual population. ...

How to keep in faith with a statistically profitable system?

Craig, Thanks so much for the suggestions you gave. You were one of the top three traders I was hoping to hear from. I'm looking at downloading the R software but am a bit confused which version I need running Windows 7 64b. I'll figure it out ...

Trading Prerequisites - Doing it Right

It's a percentage game when we are talking about daily reversals. If you knew for example that 90% of the time there are at least 3 reversals, 80% of the time there are 4, 70% there are 5, 50% there are 6 ect.. I made those stats up by the way. Now, ...

Trading volatility - a possibly interesting exercise

You'd be surprised how many late day spike reversals there are. This does not have to be a problem though, you just need to know the nature of daily reversals, i.e. on average, how many times does price reverse to break its current high or low? So, ...

Trading volatility - a possibly interesting exercise

Instead approaching the market with your idea, try to approach some aspect of the market that you can quantify, then apply your idea--namely, trading without relying on an subjective prediction about the direction of the market. For example, suppose ...

Trading volatility - a possibly interesting exercise

I only have one cup of coffee in me so far this morning, but I'm going to wager that this is a dead system no matter which way you try to tweak the numbers. The problem is that the system can't correctly predict the direction often enough. Even if ...

Brain teaser 1: Is it possible to turn a losing system into profitable one?

I get all my orderboard information from Fluffy the Forex Fairy. She sits on my shoulder and whispers into my ear where all the stops are.

A quite radical approach to forex trading