you see the NFP is kind of funny because most times when it sucks....it becomes USD bullish due to risk off and when it is good it becomes equity, and eur bullish due to risk on.... so I don't know what to make of it but even if it sucks due to ...

EurAnalysis

GDP Growth Rate US GDP growth rate is 3.10%>the Euro Zone ECB interest rate is .75% while the US is .00-.25% however it appears that market expectation is for US to increase interest rate in the long term as the economy improves.......while the ...

Looking at Exchange Rates in a Scientific way

you continue to be wrong...... as Hanover pointed out as you approach the limit of infinity of continuous coin tossing your probability is 50% it is the law of large numbers as he correctly pointed out when you conduct 100 toss trials an infinite ...

Extracted Thread (per thread starter's request)

do not misquote me Crucial Point

Extracted Thread (per thread starter's request)

that is not what I was saying the probability of an event occurring given enough sample space means it will occur...that post you took came out to be 7 events in that many samples (it occurred 7 times) I still agree with Nubcake .....if you have a ...

Extracted Thread (per thread starter's request)

you seem to be correct every coin has a 50/50 probability and the law of large numbers in fact gives you an expected value of .50 here is the binomial probability density function (p(a)^n*p(1-a)^n-k)*(n choose K)

Extracted Thread (per thread starter's request)

yeah that is entirely my fault. you are welcome to ask and I will give you the best answer to the best of my ability......

Looking at Exchange Rates in a Scientific way

Thank you ...that helps a lot most of my threads are brain storming ...not for academic papers but for my own ideas. I am very grateful to you for your inputs I will definitely organize it a lot better MACRO to MICRO sounds good. Ultimately the ...

Looking at Exchange Rates in a Scientific way

I am not sure if it is just me but I always like to look at the big picture. I take positions, intra-day, or swing, long term .....It really doesn't matter..... it depends on the opportunities I find in the markets at the time (perceived or ...

Looking at Exchange Rates in a Scientific way

on the point of equilibrium, I was thinking of using both TA and Fundamental analysis to compute what equilibrium price would be.....for example if we take interest rate disparities, gdp growth, and purchasing power parity to come up with a ...

Looking at Exchange Rates in a Scientific way

I was going to write a post explaining economic indicators and their impact on investors as well potential impacts on exchange rates...however Investopedia has a very informative and far more detailed piece on the matter. url

Looking at Exchange Rates in a Scientific way

In summary as far I as I understand the current "market micro structure" analysis and empirical studies. orderflow is the single most important exchange rate determinant......often enumerated by the following Inventory risk Liquidity effects and ...

Looking at Exchange Rates in a Scientific way

News Macro news announcements typically generate a quick surge in currency trading volume and volatility. As shown in Figures 2A and 2B, which are taken from Chaboud et al. (2004), volume initially surges within the first minute by an order of ...

Looking at Exchange Rates in a Scientific way

Interesting excerpt from : paper by Carol L. Olser "Brandeis University" "Technical trading is widespread in foreign exchange markets. Taylor and Allen (1992) show that 90 percent of chief dealers in London rely on technical signals. Cheung and ...

Looking at Exchange Rates in a Scientific way

I wonder how much is already priced in

EURUSD

as i ponder your question in more detail short eur/usd long usd/jpy is not eur/jpy it would be a synthetic for greater exposure on USD/USD as you are shorting EUR and shorting JPY EUR/JPY would be long EUR/usd and long usd/JPY as usd/jpy plays on ...

EURUSD

you mean you would be shorting eur/jpy or longing....because it makes a difference. last time I checked the roll over rate was expensive for that pair...I argue it is an initial hedge for a swing position....that can be let go off as you are deeper ...

EURUSD

hedging against that heavy tail event by reducing the exposure to the yen would be silly....as it would incur a bigger transaction cost and a bigger effective position in the market. don't like risk? don take a position that is ,100% neutral= net 0 ...

EURUSD

that would be a black swan which mathematics assuming CETERIS PARIBUS would be a huge loss......that is the risk we take everyday......assuming that low probability event does not occur then .....it is worthwhile to consider an actual hedge to the ...

EURUSD

here is a strategy using a 10,000 unit position = mini lot short the euro with 1 mini lot, and buy 1 mini lot of the yen time frame for stats= last 6 months sigma(yen)/sigma(euro)= .7791 that means that euro volatility is greater than yen by 1- ...

EURUSD