Petra, Not knocking your honourable efforts here - but you keep mentioning '...in the long run'. As I explained in my previous post, there are times and ways when trading models work - and when they fail. It is usually in my 22-year experince greed ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

That is of course if you trade in an 'open-ended' way. If you are (as a profitable trader) armed with that knowledge of the Bell-Curve, you know when to jump off the train - namely when you have accumulated profits and when the profitability curve ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

AstonDan, Thank you for your kind words. Pipmutt, Thank you too - and its quite alright that we don't agree on everything - if we all did all of the time, there wouldn't be any markets to trade and nothing to discuss. regards daytrading

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Triphop, The following excerpt is from a study produced by a couple of professors in the fund industry: 12 Hochradl and Wagner 2007. 13 Brunnermeier, M . et al., 2008. 14 Gray, R.W. and D.J.S. Rutledge. 1971 B. Speculators, Hedgers and "Zero-Sum" ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

The analogy between casino's and the markets per-se is of course slighly abstract, so the basic idea has to be transferred. If you compare the individual (financially limited) retail trader with a multi-billion hedge fund for example, similarities ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

The FX Cash market - contrary to assumptions - is NOT a zero sum game. FX futures are. regards daytrading

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

you're welcome regards daytrading

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Because unless you enter the market on a random basis with no regard for how large your losses might get (i.e. ultimately total capital erosion), there are rules present. Even a single rule which would say for example that you only risk a maximum of ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Of course. What you are saying here is the very essence of the whole game: the trader has to think and act like the casino - and not the guest. Your example of the casino 'moving the goalpost' is precisely what funds and successful traders do; they ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Firstly, I said that this is a simplified explanation. Take a game of cards if you don't like the analogy with roulette - it gives you a variety of choices how to play your cards. The result, nevertheless will still be in favour of the casino - rest ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Hi, Firstly, there is a difference between 'automated' and 'mechanical' - but to answer your question about trade handling, yes, every trade is handled in precisely the same way. When you step into a casino to play the roulette wheel, you have ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Many factors, Triphop - Sequence of consecutive losses, distribution of different size losses over different time periods, distribution over selected time periods of outsized winning trades and many more. It works a bit like in a surgery when you ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

hahaha... If you have a model that trades once a day only (which is not uncommon) and has a statistical advantage, you are talking approximately 38.5 years of data. Hedge funds employ statisticians that get excited about statistical edges that are ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Hi, What would be 'a large number' of trades that would convince you? regards daytrading

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Here you are:

MTF Candle Indicator, modification needed

Cindy, You are getting ahead of the thread now, hahaha. What has been discussed so far related to isolated incidents of buying or selling that would have a move in price as a result - but only the immediate move related to those buy's or sales and ...

How and Why Does Price Move? Who and What Moves Price?

Hi Cindy, You mean to say 'buyers' in the 1st paragraph of your reply, I guess - and yes, it is the most underrated and greatest discovery for any new trader. Secondly, in my book a lack of sellers or more buyers than sellers is the same thing. If ...

How and Why Does Price Move? Who and What Moves Price?

Hi, Without discrediting the value of any of the preceeding posts, it is almost certain that none of the information will actually translate into a definable trading advantage. Triangular arbitrage used to be one of the ways in which discrepancies ...

How and Why Does Price Move? Who and What Moves Price?

Although there is truth in some of the points that have been brought up so far, I bet my hat that once the guy logs on in order to check the replies, he'll be more confused than before staring this thread. regards daytrading

Should I go against myself?

WHAT DO YOU THINK YOUR EDGE IS? regards daytrading

Should I go against myself?