I just made a Monte Carlo simulation for this scenario. Have fun!

Brain teaser 1: Is it possible to turn a losing system into profitable one?

Congratulation!!! You have won the jackpot!!! The keyword to solve the puzzle is conditional probability! Math is weird right? With a little trick an original strategy with expectancy of -2.3, 0.8, 2 (Before spread) can turn into a system that looks ...

Brain teaser 1: Is it possible to turn a losing system into profitable one?

Ok you are right. The 1st set with reverse trade direction is barely profitable with net profit of 30pips after 100 trades, or you may say it has an expectancy of 0.3 pips. Original direction: TP = 10, SL = 20, Win% = 59%, Loss% = 41% Expectancy ...

Brain teaser 1: Is it possible to turn a losing system into profitable one?

Yes you are right. It is possible that expectancy is still increasing after TP = 30 as long as it has not gone beyond its max expectancy point. However, in this case we assume that we only have 3 sets of test results. We do not consider any other ...

Brain teaser 1: Is it possible to turn a losing system into profitable one?

mmm...Sorry I must caused some confusion. I have edited my original question. Please read again.

Brain teaser 1: Is it possible to turn a losing system into profitable one?

I believe all of us will came out with the same conclusion the moment we look at the performance number without thinking deeper. Well I did not specify any methods to solve the puzzle. It is up to you. My question is if it is not possible, why? ...

Brain teaser 1: Is it possible to turn a losing system into profitable one?

Is 2 pips of spread included in your answer?

Brain teaser 1: Is it possible to turn a losing system into profitable one?

Nope this looks like a Parrondo's paradox but it is not any kind of paradox.

Brain teaser 1: Is it possible to turn a losing system into profitable one?

Good try but please be reminded that 2 pips of spread already been deducted. So Set 1 actually has TP = 10 and SL = 20 before spread. If you reverse the trade direction then the new TP/SL should be TP = 18 and SL = 12 after spread. Please try again.

Brain teaser 1: Is it possible to turn a losing system into profitable one?

Common traders say "hey there is a clear relation to price bouncing off pivot points". Quants say "hey there is a x% of probability that price bouncing off pivot points to y price before it goes z price. Can you see the difference? Why the heck ...

Ok, Lets do it - Developing a Highly Profitable System

Well it does not help even if you know all the initial conditions (You called it 'dynamics'). You should know it if you want to talk 'chaos'.

Ok, Lets do it - Developing a Highly Profitable System

If you already saw it and understood the underlying rules within the non-deterministic chaotic of price movement, then you should know where to find profit and you dont need this thread anymore. btw gun shooting is a bad example. Layman's view of ...

Ok, Lets do it - Developing a Highly Profitable System

No hidden dynamics? You must be kidding with chaotician.

Ok, Lets do it - Developing a Highly Profitable System

Same thing happened to news trading too. The most common tactic was news straddle and another uncommon one was using oanda box option. When a concrete edge is exploited among the world, the edge will be vanished sooner than you expected because no ...

Ok, Lets do it - Developing a Highly Profitable System

I meant a mathematic model based on chaos science, a self-similarity mathematic structure. This mathematic structure allow me to determine the mispricing element therefore profit from it. I think you were referring to BW 'chaos theory'. IMHO his so ...

Quant Corner

Any quants here build their model based on chaos theory?

Quant Corner

if you risk 600 pips (Say you risk 30 pips per trade for 20 trades) for a month then you may make 600 pips easily. if you risk only 200 pips a month then it will be much more difficult to make 600 pips. Looking at the profit alone (doesnt matter ...

How many Pips per month?

You need to remind others that this thread has nothing related to BW chaos trading.

Dealing with chaos

Extreme risk reward ratio may not bring you optimal profit factor. Your could have PF of 2 for RRR of 3 but only have PF of 1.2 for RRR of 30.

Thinking Outside the Box!?!