Monday, Sept. 13, 2021. Updates: 1) I added the name of the coffee futures, KTZ1, to the chart, because the delivery dates for these futures will have to be taken into consideration. 2) Since we have no open positions, the prospect of a short trade ...

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

Friday, Sept. 10, 2021. I have rearranged my little speech bubbles on the chart so that they flow a little better. Also, I arbitrarily put in a note to indicate where the stop loss for our abortive short entry might be. I haven't finished ...

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

Thursday, Sept. 9: exit long #2. image

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

Wednesday, Sept 8: the "STOP LOSS" post. Real Turtle Traders will tell you that they keep track of price changes in order to calculate N, which is used as a measure of volatility. "N" has been described as the 20-day exponential moving average of ...

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

Greetings from Canada, which is pretty much "No Man's Land" as far as online brokers are concerned. Before I go through this whole thread, I think this explains it: url ? That's no joke. I first found out about this the hard way a few years ago. I ...

Brokers for Canadians?

Tuesday Sept. 7. The CME listing for "coffee C continuous" futures looks like this: image I think I've posted this before, but it's a good primer: url

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

Friday, Sept. 3. image N.B.: The prices in the little blue tags are entered by the computer and are not always 100% spot on. If you look at the two black vertical lines on the right, the one that says "191.20" should read "191.15," which is the ...

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

Thursday Sept. 2/2021: Green arrows indicate "Sell and Sell Short" entries... image One of my favorite books on trading is a "how-to" guide on trading by Dr. Alexander Elder called Sell and Sell Short. If I had to summarize his approach, I would ...

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

image

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

Wednesday, Sept.1/2021: image We are still long in this hypothetical, back-tested trade. The two vertical black lines are ten trading days apart. When you include weekdays, that's two weeks. If a new low occurred on the 10th day, that would be a ...

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

Monday, August 30, 2021. The high price reached 200.20 on my chart today. image We are still long in this hypothetical trade.

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

Have a good weekend! image

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

Friday's close: 2021 08 27 N.B. In the Turtle Trading book that I'm using, there is a reference to a filter rule that might change the way people look at this chart: The Turtles ignored the System One four-week breakout signal if the last four-week ...

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 25: Stagnant. image Well, the Turtles didn't promise excitement EVERY day...

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

After trading: Tuesday, August 24th: image I put two flags that mark the low prices for today (the 24th) and two weeks earlier. Neither one represents a "new two-week low," so we are still long in this hypothetical trade.

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

Last Friday's low was 178.10 but was not an exit signal. Out of the previous ten trading days, it was not a new low. There were in fact two lower prices: one is labeled on the map (172.45). The OHLC candle after that still has a low of 177.55, which ...

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

And, because it seems you can't have two images in one post, or it'll use up too much memory, here is the requisite girlie pic. image

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

AMENDMENT/CORRECTION: I wasn't sure if I was following the system right, so I went and got out the Google Sheets page and wrote out all the OHLC numbers from 17 Mar 2021 to the start of the chart. I wanted to be sure that I was getting the right ...

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

What a difference a day makes! Now that I've been experimenting with the tools on TradingView (my shameless plug for my charting website), I've cleaned up my chart and expanding the scope of the back-testing. Now it's easier to see where the entry ...

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates

In this backtesting scenario, we have still not reached our exit signal: a two-week low on the daily charts. So we would still be long (if this were a real trade). I recently read this week that the pullback in the coffee rally was due to "concerns" ...

Futures: Energy, Metals, Grains, Soft, Indices, Rates