Do you mean the Shanghai exchange, or the economy in general? And over what sort of time frames? A big drop in the SSE might cause a short term strengthening of the yen, but on the whole because it's a very young exchange, with hundreds of thousands ...

Hypothetical China crash

AFAIK, black box trading is the heart of Rennaissance Technologies's income, and they are one of the biggest (and most profitable) hedge funds around. url Note however their work is based on rigourous math & statistical analysis, which is a ...

The future effect of banks using AI software

Hi David; In that I was just addressing the issue that one should only get out when going the other way looked more profitable, which was what the poster befor me (IIRC - it's so many posts ago ) was saying. I tend to look at the markets as a ...

Exits: Our worst enemy

No, entry and exit are not the same, and the reason they aren't is risk. If you have endless capital and a perfect estimate of the probabilities, then it's ok to enter when the probability is one part in a bazillion greater than 50% going your way, ...

Exits: Our worst enemy

That's why it pays to be an alchemist, ask any quant....

a few pages of computer code into an endless stream of money?

It's not so much brokers as the banks that provide liquidity to the system; they tend to widen their spreads significantly. No one really cares enough - except retail brokers - to worry about retail platforms to do this to hurt retail clients; they ...

Question on nonfarm pay roll trading

I tend to agree with Blue Wave Rider, though not that systems are for suckers; they are more like training wheels. They're good to help you learn the ropes, and self discipline, and provide a framework on which to expand your understanding of the ...

Best trading systems

No. Scalping is taking a few pips off a market overshoot. Hedging isnvolves (in it's most basic form) using one financial instrument to generate profit, and another to minimize risk.

any differences between hedging and scalping

Though I tend to use targets and levels set by my filters, what it really comes down to is estimating whether the price is likely to move in your direction more, or not. For example, if you have a long position that's working, at any point you might ...

Exits: Our worst enemy

Guess I would classify 2-4 as simply dumb "hedges" for which there is generally no point. 1) on the other hand is just standard trading. In a true hedge you should be looking for a position in one set of intruments to make a profit while using ...

Hedge: Friend or Foe?!?

I find it easiest just to keep an eye on the 4 majors + USD/CAD, Aud/USD, and EUR/JPY; then if something starts heating up (say USD/JPY) go look to see what's going on the related crosses. Must admit I've spent an inordinate amount of time with ...

How many pairs is considered too many?

I think it really depends on how strong the statement is after. If they give a clear indication of a hike next month, or mention the necessity of keeping an eye on rates, then if it does continue to rise it will do so more slowly. The big players ...

USD/JPY Discussion

Oil prices, commodities, the stock markets and even politics are generally more important in the USD/CAD relationship than are benchmark interest rates.

Why CAD goes Down ?

There does seem to be some drop, depending on how one deines the volatility, and in terms of what periods one is comparing. But a big source of volatility has been removed as more financial instruments are traded both programmatically and ...

Less Volitility in Modern Markets?

If you are using metatrader, just use the "bands" indicator that is prepackaged in the Custom Indicators folder (not the Bollinger bands in the regular indicators folder)

I need an indicator

This is a very important point that is often missed in short-term analysis; and it's not just the ME move (for example, Iran is nw requiring payment in non-USD form). We are slowly moving out of single reserve/vehicle ccy system in which the USD was ...

EURUSD

The dead stop was probably all just manipulated by the BoJ and MoF, with help from (perhaps) RBNZ. It was quite peculiar (haha) how NZD/JPY and USD/JPY bounced at almost the same time off critical levels...

USD/JPY Discussion

It's mostly strong commodities, a good trade balance, a budget surplus, a political/economic environment favourable to M&A based flows, and less international political friction.

whats up with Canada?

The other point that hasn't been mentionned, (though I may have missed it), is that once again China's trade surplus has almost doubled y/y, which should speed the rate at which the PBoC is willing to let the CNY strengthen against the USD., which ...

USD/JPY Discussion

Excellent point, thanks...

USD/JPY Discussion