Maybe I didn't make this point too clear: you don't gain the edge from attempting to increase the R/R by itself. The edge is one thing (for example finding a phenomenon that yields movement in your desired direction - however many pips). Dealing ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Ok, carrying on.... Another aspect in your structure to approach maybe a little different is what you refer to as 'negative' expectancy. It's a business and like in every good business, you have to enquire about the profit margin. That means you ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Petra, Initially, all the edges which we as traders carve out, are based on observation; like you believe that your observation of the round number occurrence has enough statistical relevance to give it further thought. The charting medium has given ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Well, there you go: When creating a hypothesis, we must test. The testing procedure must have clear objectives and must also meet established criteria. There has to be the use of a sample which in turn has to be explained as to the chosen ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Yes. I think it would be leading too far away from the actual subject to venture into 'frequency optimization' and the like. Nevertheless, a good discussion. regards daytrading P.S. we still haven't tackled the thread starters issues conclusively.

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Of course. regards daytrading

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Hi Pipmutt, It might appear that way. If you study 1000+ weekly candles though, you will find that there are significantly less outside bars [which are responsible for false signals in BO trading] than in bars of time frames below 1day and 4H. On ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Hi Mikkom, I am sure that clusters exist. I am not sure if they have the same repeatable effect on market movements all the time, and further to this, can a trader at any point in time have a real idea about what a 'possible' cluster will do on any ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Hi Mikkom, I had a look at the Oanda link you provided in your post. Personally, I would not take any of this as a trading reference unless I was working for oanda. It mentiones that it [their platform] takes into account order types to create these ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Unquestionable - but there are of course other time frames - even a H1 has ebb and flow patterns and if I take the X and Y axis levels of a chart, it will be very difficult for you to tell me whether you are looking at a daily or M5 chart. It is ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Yes, yes, Scotty - but you are already at extreme points of the graph and time. I am not saying there are no opportunities to be created by building a framework around open interest and volumes in futures. My angle of explanation was supposed to ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Scotty, You're talking futures right? regards daytrading

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Petra, We are talking two different rivers here - I might have not made this clear enough for readers to understand. First of all, it is absolutely irrelevant who can or does move the market intentionally or unintentional (yes, there ar plenty of ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Petra, You don't need to know the data as such. It manifests itself in either a rising of falling graph on your (and more importantly everyone elses) charts. The 'old' higher high's and higher low's pattern is only one of the ways to get a sense of ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Hi, I would in case of the roulette wheel not use the term 'probability' because almost like in the coin flip exercise, one outcome (red or heads) is as likely as the other outcome (black or tails) - of course there is the skew in roulette with the ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Hi Hanover and Global Macro and Chicky, Great posts. I think we might be getting somewhere here. As many others, especially thread starter Petra, I do respect mathematics as the 'power behind the throne'. When bringing up the 'law of large numbers' ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

No, Yonnie. Although there are more than one formula to calculate price volatility, I will give you something to ponder on: If (as you say) the difference between HIGH and LOW is the correct way of proceeding, what does the result tell you? Would it ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

People, Let me conclude my participation in this seemingly perpetual struggle of either side to persuade the other whether the markets are random or not and whether it is possible to earn huge sums of money by daytrading the retail market. If you ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

What analogy? It was a metaphor in the book to explain the principle. Further to this, Nassim Taleb has not made a fraction of the money Larry Williams has extracted from trading. That should tell you something. regards daytrading

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy

Here is another little bit after testing for randomness in the market: Table 1.1 shows the percentage of time that prices closed higher in a wide variety of markets. There were no criteria; the computer just bought on the open each day and exited on ...

Long term Profits within Negative Expectancy