Anyway: In total I played about ten games today. The probability of the first event (also, my personal record, seems that my trend following abilities outperform my extra sensory ones) is 0.2%, the second about 3%. The chances of getting both in ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

what are the odds? cheers, k image

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Buying above the line -> outstanding ESP (extra sensory perception) ability the point of this free app is to guess which out of four cards is the correct one. I played two games today, in both scored above average (avg is 6/24), in one I got ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

The top for oil may be retested (and would probably hold, as far as I can predict). k

Oil and Natural Gas

Sell confirmation. url k

Oil and Natural Gas

Potential sell opportunity of the second push down is now imho. It shouldn't make any more highs. k edit: widened the sl, it would have been a loss otherwise. it is difficult to guess intermediate tops/bottoms. :/ edit2: s/o

Oil and Natural Gas

Btw, this is a very good, objective way to distinguish between noisy, mean-reverting (vwap~POC) and trend behavior. k

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

see here (sorry for two posts, on my mobile and it renders the comments box strangely) url

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

this is similar to the usage of vwap indicator on the daily scale. Vwap (volume weighted average price) is the anchored volume-weighted moving average. Sometimes it can be used with the volume profile indicator, on which one can read off a price at ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Probably possible at news/gaps, but one has to be clever. Just as with anything else. k

Risk Free Forex Arbitrage System... Possible?

If I understand you correctly: I agree with you, there is a self-similarity across timeframes (I refer to it as “music”) I agree also that this is an evidence of a non-random market. Probably what happens is that the big market players test the ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

I think this was the first pullback upon going down. I added more to my short position. Updated estimates of swing bottom are given. k image

Oil and Natural Gas

That is how I’d do it, without the profit compounding bit though: Losses occur at zero crossings, which are not ignorable (average about ~6 zero crossings/100 games). One needs to be careful to split games into smaller batches (100 or so, which is ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

I was actually referring to the sequence of roulette wheels, sorry for not being explicit: The random walk is imho beatable. k

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

We just showed that the long sequence of n random steps, if it is to end above the reference line will look like a “up” candlestick with an open value of 0 (ref line), close value of sqrt(2 n /pi) and an expected high value of sqrt( pi n/2)... So I ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

More precisely, this means that ohlc ratios are the same as generated by random process. This is not unexpected, because open and close are “snapshots” at particular discrete time (so overall random). The statement is similar to “there are all kinds ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

If I am reading this and this correctly, for random candles generated in this fashion, the ratio <high-open>/<close-open> in the limit of large number of steps would be pi/2. That would make the average “candle” approximately ~ 1/4-1/2-1/4. (More ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

I think I’m being silly: If one would separate the averaging between the “up” (close>open) and “down” (close<open) candles, I’m not quite sure what the result would be (possibly <close-open>~sqrt(n) for up candles? Not sure about average high/low. ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Perhaps a better way to simulate it would be to use long random walks. I guess in this case the average candle would be a doji. k url

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

I’m curious about the result: 1/3-1/3-1/3? k

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick