I should add that for this to be a cable weakness, there would have to be a sizeable retracement from the top of the move up today. That doesn't seem to be happening so the outlook for cable is still bullish.

Islander and Medici trade the European open

You're welcome. and here's an illustration of the psychological aspects of top formation - also posted as a 1 minute chart earlier.

Islander and Medici trade the European open

Hi David, and thanks for giving me the opportunity to clarify things, not least to myself... First, let's clarify the market psychology of these patterns, and let's stick to bearish patterns for simplicity. Bearish patterns are top formations, so ...

Islander and Medici trade the European open

Thanks for adding some detail. Nothing of what you are saying contradicts what I said earlier. Albeit brief, what I said remains correct - by maximising the Kelly fraction you maximise your account growth rate. As you say, and what I briefly hinted ...

RRR vs. W%

Sorry to be a nitpicker, but the Kelly criterion is used to optimise the average percentage gain per trade.

RRR vs. W%

Note that the lower high was, exactly to the pip, at the predicted reversal level. You don't get that with ZUP etc.

Islander and Medici trade the European open

Bat Pattern — Bat pattern reveals that the Euro bulls are getting exhausted. EDIT: Butterfly pattern.

Islander and Medici trade the European open

See...nice entry at 9.30.

Islander and Medici trade the European open

It is the time - Heard about Greenwich?

Islander and Medici trade the European open

Of course!

Islander and Medici trade the European open

Saw that one too. Added confidence to the sell.

Islander and Medici trade the European open

Agree. Could go as far as 4610, I think. And, surpisingly, ditto, banked a few and waiting for the 'big one'. EDIT: 4603 is 50% of the move up, 4565 61.8%. EDIT 2: The big reversal often happen around 9.30. So let's see what happens today...

Islander and Medici trade the European open

Euro-yen bat — GM. There's a potential bat pattern in Euro-yen with reversal level 110.50.

Islander and Medici trade the European open

It's perhaps valid in the sense that the proportions are correct, but I prefer harmonic patterns that emerge out of ranges that people are trading, such as the top range in cable today (see attached). That way I can be reasonably confident that ...

Islander and Medici trade the European open

And the cable peak was at the 261.8% extension...

Islander and Medici trade the European open

the 200% extension is at 4657.

Islander and Medici trade the European open

Fibonacci extensions — Note how orders are placed at every extension level on the way up, and how they act as S/R.

Islander and Medici trade the European open

Thank you! That's helpful. 1.48 is my target area too, but I am wary of false breakout and would rather wait for a better entry.

Islander and Medici trade the European open

Let Fibonacci extensions tell you when enough is enough. — Short at 161.8%.

Islander and Medici trade the European open

Keep this one in mind...

Islander and Medici trade the European open