Let me join the "Don't short Aussie" club as well. With the interest rate differentials it's bloody expensive to be short Aussie for longer-term players. Not until the equities head south will Aussie go down to any meaningful extent. Just my view, ...

Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

SPX — SPX has broken above the magical 1120, the 50% line of the 2007-09 drop, which it struggled with over the latter half of the week. And there's a H&S pattern forming with shoulder at 1150, which is connected with another interesting ...

Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

Like Shahab said, prices are exactly where you want to go short, and that is perhaps even more true for cable. I posted this elsewhere: url

Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

Reminds me of the all time high in cable (since the Plaza Accord) 8/9 November 2007 when Asia pushed it higher overnight until London took over and sent it down 500 pips over 48 hours.

Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

Very true. Remember Joe Biden's announcement ahead of the last jobs report that it would be a good one? Indicates that the cover up is fully intentional. Sooner or later the implications for US Govt debt will have to be accounted for, and the ...

Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

Thank you! And agreed, Big Trouble indeed.

Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

SPX and the 1929 crash — I don't know if anybody has noted that equities have been struggling to get past the levels reached mid-week. What is this about? One observation is that SPX now is at 1120, which is the 50%& retracement of the 2007-09 ...

Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

I can recommend Paint.NET, it's free and it's very good: url

Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

I expect a drop early in the week, as posted elsewhere: url

Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

Further to my comments in the last post, I have to share this interview with Constance Brown. A document filled with trading wisdom that in parts reads like a classic, e.g. Seneca, where sentences are immediately recognised as quotes to be committed ...

Islander and Medici trade the European open

I don't use futures data at all, and it seems like LuboLabo's thread is the place to explore that, but here are some comments on using public order book data. When it comes to limit orders made public through platforms such as CME (futures) and EBS ...

Using future orderflow, to predict spot prices

Nice thread. That's the practical answer to woo's question. Very nice.

Using future orderflow, to predict spot prices

The futures/forward price is determined by the interest differential and the time to expiry through a straightforward fomula. See for example url . Any deviations in the futures price from that formula would provide an opportunity for covered ...

Using future orderflow, to predict spot prices

Hello ozmacca, thanks for taking the time to explain. On 720/1440 ema usage, I think I'd like some more testing than a week's data during which the market has been strongly trending. When it comes to making Islander's methods work, my angle on it is ...

Islander and Medici trade the European open

Thank you for taking the time to explain. I see now what you mean. A couple of comments: 1) While I understand your point, I still don't see how that makes my post irrelevant to the question originally posed even though some comments perhaps were ...

EUR USD USD CHF correlation

Oh, I must have misunderstood things as I cannot understand the irrelevance on a second careful reading. Could you please explain? Thanks.

EUR USD USD CHF correlation

Exactly. If you multiply EUR/USD with USD/CHF, you get EUR/CHF so trading this "correlation" is effectively the same as trading EUR/CHF. So low volatility in EUR/CHF means strong "correlation" and vice versa. Trading this "correlation" without this ...

EUR USD USD CHF correlation

Interesting. Today they could have been seen to act as S/R levels. Have you noticed anything else? Btw, what prompted you to put those on your charts?

Islander and Medici trade the European open

Actually I was late to the party as I was being distracted by a the potential of a drop in cable. Mistake. But I caught a good bit of both up and down moves. For tomorrow it looks like l'line-in-the-sand' patterns are developing ahead of the usual ...

Islander and Medici trade the European open

A Beautiful Picture — Isn't it?

Islander and Medici trade the European open