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yieldjunkie commented Apr 7, 2021This BSBY is interesting, but replacing libor has been the talk for well over a year to little avail. There are still trillions of dollars of libor-linked securities in the market with maturity dates well past libor's intended phase-out date and the ...
Investors Closer to Getting a Credit-Based Alternative to Libor
- yieldjunkie replied Apr 6, 2021
I completely expect to stomach further downside as the month of April passes - I'm leaving room to add to this position one more time but at this point it's a waiting game. In the grand scheme of things, I'm net-long risk owing to other traditional ...
Yieldjunkie's Short-term Sentiment: Indices, Macro Risk Env
- yieldjunkie replied Apr 6, 2021
Added at $11.5656 as the ETF broke below it's 52-week low this morning - should leave my cost basis for the position ~$12.89
Yieldjunkie's Short-term Sentiment: Indices, Macro Risk Env
- yieldjunkie commented Apr 5, 2021
They're quoting average sales price... nothing addressing the velocity of NFT creations, most of which are listed for something like 0.01 ETH and decimate that average. That said, I agree.
The NFT bubble might be bursting already
- yieldjunkie replied Apr 1, 2021
I certainly missed a few opportunities to take profit and reload the trade but I likely would have been limited to <10% gains. I seem to have landed on >10% as my threshold for any circumstantial recycling of this trade, in portions of no more than ...
Yieldjunkie's Short-term Sentiment: Indices, Macro Risk Env
- yieldjunkie replied Mar 31, 2021
Here's another great one from Goldman.. GS bailed on the Archegos positions and then immediately downgraded Nomura because they are still stuck holding the bag
url The Swamp
- yieldjunkie commented Mar 31, 2021
For anybody else looking for the IMF data, I found it here. Somewhat confusing data to understand - participants are "encouraged" to report their holdings using end-of-period exchange rates.. and at the end of Q4 2020 the USD was the weakest it had ...
U.S. dollar share of global FX reserves in fourth quarter 2020 hits lowest since 1995: IMF
- yieldjunkie replied Mar 30, 2021
Keep in mind that tomorrow is quarter-end. Should see healthy volatility as managers rebalance, likely adjusting out of USD at the margin given the recent gains and possibly some profit-taking too. I'm not a technical trader, but I plan on going ...
USD/JPY Discussion
- yieldjunkie commented Mar 30, 2021
Seems to me that this may circumvent the transaction speed issue with certain cryptos, since fiat is being used for the actual purchase. You'd definitely be getting hit with capital gains tax on top of sales tax though...
PayPal Launches "Checkout with Crypto"
- yieldjunkie commented Mar 30, 2021
Original owners were "driven by the desire to create permanent housing at sea, not bound by any governmental restrictions." but.. "We will not be able to proceed because of archaic big insurance companies that cannot adapt to innovative new ideas” ...
'Satoshi' Cruise Ship Lives to Set Sail Again
- yieldjunkie replied Mar 30, 2021
With the last day of the quarter tomorrow, 10-year UST yields continuing to capture media attention (currently just ~1.71%), and my position remaining green (though nothing impressive).. I'm extending sentiment out for another 20 days. There are a ...
Yieldjunkie's Short-term Sentiment: Indices, Macro Risk Env
- yieldjunkie replied Mar 29, 2021
The resolution of this Suez blockage seems to have been rather uneventful. Back to the basics! image
WTI Crude Oil Trading
- yieldjunkie commented Mar 29, 2021
I've yet to see estimates of how leveraged Archegos was - from what I can tell they had ~$10bn under management. The ripple in the market that this is creating is concerning... in the grand scheme, $10bn isn't huge. "... could be highly significant ...
Global Banks Warn of Possible Losses From Hedge Fund Default
- yieldjunkie replied Mar 25, 2021
7yr auction was somewhat of a dud - overall it was confirming of my sentiment on yields, but it wasn't as ugly as the prior 7yr auction so no major knee-jerk selloffs. That much doesn't entirely matter, this is a slow moving and very heavy train we ...
Yieldjunkie's Short-term Sentiment: Indices, Macro Risk Env
- yieldjunkie commented Mar 25, 2021
This was a dud. Not a great auction by any measure, and not a blowout in yields like last month's 7yr.. which is why we aren't seeing violent moves. The yield curve continues to shift up - I'd expect this to continue.
US 7-Year Notes: 1.300%; 40.90% At High
- yieldjunkie replied Mar 25, 2021
Exciting day ahead with the auction in focus. Nasdaq futures sold off into US close yesterday and found little support overnight. Early morning support, which has been fairly consistent over the past week, was weak this morning and after a brief ...
Yieldjunkie's Short-term Sentiment: Indices, Macro Risk Env
- yieldjunkie commented Mar 25, 2021
This is the best level we have seen since the pandemic took hold! Unfortunately, it's still higher than the worst data during the '08 crisis at 669k. The Fed certainly has their job cut out for them.
Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report
- yieldjunkie commented Mar 25, 2021
The sell-off probabilities in here are shockingly high and effects large in magnitude, but the caveat that it could take a long time to materialize is exactly what has been blasting market bears for the past year. Great article!
U.S. Equity Values: The Three Dogs That Have Not Barked
- yieldjunkie replied Mar 24, 2021
As if trading crude wasn't messy enough (at least from where I sit), this debacle in the Suez canal seems to be clogging up oil tankers. Away from that, I do think the return of demand will be steady - already seeing promising news as it relates to ...
WTI Crude Oil Trading