In my experience not a workable strategy. By moving stop to BE too early you stop out many winners, which won't give you "another shot", whereas the "second shots" provided will be mostly losers.

Random walk and Pascals triangle

Indeed. It could mean entry by limit order, but that's not what I had in mind. A manual entry enables you to fine-tune the timing better. As an example, take a look at a 1 minute or tick chart for sterling at 2.45 London time yesterday. Clear ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

The market is not random and fundamentals don't provide predictability. There is plenty of research on exchange rate predictability based no fundamentals. The summary is that that they don't predict rate moves. (Having said that, there are some ...

Market Random and Predictable Parts

Fanciful speculation — A lot of unfounded speculation here: 1) That brokers hunt stops. They don't because they don't move the market. Dealers at major dealing banks are the ones hunting stops. 2) That as soon as price is close to a round ...

Beat brokers at their own game - trading round figures

I'd suggest a breakout strategy for the Asian session. This is by no means perfect but may provide some inspiration: url

New York close to Asian open Strategy

CI divergence and BB fade — Another setup of the same kind

Islander and Medici trade the European open

As my trading is highly discretionary and not based on any quantitative system, my risk management approach is a bit more practical, and I evaluate things based on my own trading record. Here's a few observations. While a high RRR is desirable, ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

I find it hard to understand how a company with such financial and research resources (Microsoft) can continue to produce crap products after more than 20 years of market leadership. If they were in pharmaceuticals most of humanity would have been ...

Islander and Medici trade the European open

Indeed! I missed the 6.20 long because of computer problems (SVCHOST.EXE taking over the PC), but happy with the shorts which were the better trades after all.

Islander and Medici trade the European open

Good point. And I have given up trying to explain things to non-traders long time ago...

Trend following systems

Composite Index divergence outside of BBs — Here's a couple of Euro trades I took today based on Composite Index divergence together with price being outside of the Bollinger Bands - a high-probability set-up. The Cable sell off the ...

Islander and Medici trade the European open

Not sure I understand what you are trying to say. What do you mean by "initial condition" for example. And that the spreadsheet should be valid for 6/-2 only doesn't seem right, as it gives identical numbers as FQ's for 6/-6. Could you please ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

In my experience people at dealing banks and hedge funds don't spend a second thinking about what retail traders might be up to. More important is deal flow information and the like. Those who peddle losing trading systems do so for two reasons: 1) ...

Trend following systems

Actually you don't. I modified the original spreadsheet to handle varying TPs and SLs as well as varying probabilities for an 'up' move. The triangle is of size 8 only, for the sake of illustration. You get the probabilities of hitting SL/TP on the ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

Just had a closer look at your spreadsheet after solving the problem on my own and discovered that we ended up with the same solution! So my earlier glance at your file was a bit too quick. Your spreadsheet does the trick. Apologies...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

For example, in a triangle of size 20, if the SL is -6, then the path that first goes -12 and then +8 ends up at -4 but has actually hit the -6 level before arriving at -4.

Random walk and Pascals triangle

Sign of a good trader, don't you think, to have an open mind and always learn and develop?

Higher low, lower high system

You can see the formula used by simply clicking on a cell or hit F2 to see the formula displayed in the cell. I had a look at the spreadsheet and it simply calculates the proportion of all paths that end up at a certain level. It doesn't take the ...

Random walk and Pascals triangle

In practice the probabilities are, more than anything, dependent on your entry rules/technique. So the only way to get statistics useful for risk assessment/management is from you own trading record.

Random walk and Pascals triangle

The thread is soundly asleep. Trading is going well sticking to the methods outlined in the thread

The College Trader