Just to add ... A win rate of > 50 % doesn't neccessarily mean that the market is not random. There can be profitable systems for random and deterministic markets ...

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

Well, that's what I call pseudo-random.

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

Dito. There were a lot of people claiming that the market is not random but not 1 single proof ...

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

Yes, but I assumed that everybody understands that RR will work if you can predict the market more often correct than not. But if you can, you even don't need RR, do you? And the whole thing was about the myths that the gurus spread. Just watch 10 ...

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

I never said that I believe that the market is random. I said it is pseudo-random. Please read the thread and the post again. It was just an assumption (never said that this is the truth)! Here is what I wrote: "Although this may be not the full ...

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

You mean like this Forums are here for discussions. If you knew how to trade from your very first second, then congratulation. If not then please remember how you struggled in the beginning.

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

Yes, obvious. I just forgot to mention it. In the beginning of my research I was quite amazed how hard it is to overcome the spread effect ...

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

Thank you very much! Yes, I'm well. Seems like you're very well, too I'm very happy for your progresses.

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

Nice poste. Would be honored if you'd re-post it in my recent thread. Thanks!

Simple Mean Reversion

You have the word ...

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

I haven't asked for an/your edge or your equity curve. I ask if YOU or anyone else who claims that markets are non-random = predictable can prove it ...

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

Sounds like you did almost the same than I did. I haven't found anything useful - neither in the speed the leg was built, its overall volume, retracements, etc. Please feel free to post your resultshere ...

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

Yes, I agree. Nevertheless, I've asked for hard facts (numbers/stats) and I haven't seen some so far ... Maybe you may show some?!

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

Thanks. Which topics do you like to discuss in the future? Here is my agenda: The myth "buy above an MA" and "sell below an MA". The recurrency of markets. Equivalence of common indicators, i.e. DC = Stochastic = Williams %R = ZigZag = Semaphor). A ...

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

Please. I already wrote that I don't think that the market is purely random. However, it is hard (at least for me) to identify when the market shows some repeatable patterns and thus I have to stick to the random assumption (although the market may ...

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

This is only partly true and NOT for all distributions. For instance, the Cauchy distribution doesn't have a mean (average), the Poisson distribution doesn't have a mean or standard deviation (yes, it has either a mean or a standard deviation). And ...

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

Yes, I am. Where have I said that I don't know anything about it? And where is the contradiction? There are strategies that work if the market is random and that won't work if it is deterministic and vice versa. I said the market can be random and ...

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

Yes, maybe. I wrote in my 2nd post "Is it only possible with an edge that shifts the winning probability in our favor?". Doesn't it imply that I agree that the market doesn't have to be pseudo-random all the time? I would be very happy if you or any ...

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

To be honest, I'm working as a stats teacher at the university. And thus I can't agree with all your points. For instance, you don't need an average to calculate probabilities. There are even distributions that don't have a mean (an average) per se ...

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math

=== How does an AVERAGE CANDLESTICK look like? === Have you ever asked how an average candlestick does look like? How is the "normal" ratio of the upper or lower wicks to the candle's range? Is it like 10 % wicks on both sides (on average)? Or 40 %? ...

Trading Myths and Some Forex Math