- Search Crypto Craft
- tim10167 replied Jun 13, 2012
my opinion is we really dont have to worry about a peg break at the moment, if something dramatic happens with Greek election, iam sure SNB will act by policy controls immediately. and iam sure all the implementation plans are ready, it is just a ...
EUR/CHF
- tim10167 replied Jun 13, 2012
My advise to Jordan: If you want to play peg, learn the Denmark way, bear a little lost to the speculators is actually less costly. Peg always costs money!Just spend it wisely, for the benefit of your country!Letting huge amount of longs and shorts ...
EUR/CHF
- tim10167 replied Jun 13, 2012
Thats why i said the Japanese are smarter. The only solution for a pegged policy is capital control, which more or less will cause damage to its own economy, and the effect may be short lasting, but again it all depends on the policy mix. Jordan, ...
EUR/CHF
- tim10167 replied Jun 13, 2012
Yah, looks more and more like SNB may want to wait for the Greek election result to take the next big move. They want to save this last card for a rainier day
EUR/CHF
- tim10167 replied Jun 13, 2012
Thats why the Japanese are smarter, why do you think the Japanese dont introduce a peg and just stick with conventional intervention? because it will cost them more at the end!
EUR/CHF
- tim10167 replied Jun 13, 2012
Mates, BREAKING: Steve Collins@TradeDesk_Steve "Bundesbank Considers Buying Australian Dollars" If Germans do this because they are preparing to allow "much lower" EURO for the sake of other troubled nations. We might have an issue with the peg....
EUR/CHF
- tim10167 replied Jun 13, 2012
I bet tomorrow SNB will use the word "outmost determination" again, but the difference is it will attract no more long warriors this time. I even have doubts whether it will scare the shorts away. poor cap management....
EUR/CHF
- tim10167 replied Jun 13, 2012
I think it will only cause a small pop, as too many "long warriors" have lost faith in SNB and will rush to close their long position, SNB will offload EURO too, very heavy. Thats why everyone in this forums is hoping for policy intervention.....the ...
EUR/CHF
- tim10167 replied Jun 13, 2012
Natural export earned money may only increase a few percentage of its foreign reserve/GDP every year. But if u compare the size of EU and Switzerland, the inflow caused by rapid safe heaven inflow could cause 50%~100% foreign reserve/GDP "every" ...
EUR/CHF
- tim10167 replied Jun 13, 2012
yap... looks like tomorrow might be a disappointing. it is because Jordan and SNB has managed the peg very poorly, no one believes them anymore.
EUR/CHF
- tim10167 replied Jun 13, 2012
Thanks, good info, but i think its not just about comparative price levels, swiss chf has been the most expensive currency for years, its about whether a country's economy and its industrial sturcture/type can cope with it or not, so, eventually we ...
EUR/CHF
- tim10167 replied Jun 13, 2012
Agree to a certain level, we actually do see some export oriented emergin Asian countries holding very large foreign reserve/GDP ratio for many years and it worked fine. But i think export earned money and safe heaven inflow/outflow is still a bit ...
EUR/CHF
- tim10167 replied Jun 13, 2012
I have a feeling that SNB may wants to waite for the Greek election outcome as introducing policy interventions may more or less cause inconvenience for its important financial sector
EUR/CHF
- tim10167 replied Jun 13, 2012
But we still have Spain and Italy, this will be the next major inflow wave in the near future......
EUR/CHF
- tim10167 replied Jun 13, 2012
They will talk down chf tomorrow for sure, but no one will care unless they get serious and bring in policy intervention.
EUR/CHF