See - as I said there is a flaw to this logic - market had gone ahead of itself.

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Only if US inflation shows some ease on Friday, otherwise the FED will be perceived as even more hawkish which might get nasty for the euro. If, however, we should reach a point where US higher inflation is perceived USD negative, this would be a ...

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Retail longs declining! In FF we are down to 50% now, in FXSSI we are at 56% also marking a significant decline. May be we will see the long awaited moment for the strategic bulls when retail longs turn negative.

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Hey mtako, great to see that you stay active 24/7, this is commitment! I was just wondering about an aspect of your strategy you were mentioning. So you enter stop-losses and take profits, but when the price is about to reach the level you ...

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Impressive rocket for after hours, seems that main trading hours are retail bull squeeze time while robber banks buy at night.

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Btw there is something going on in the eurozone as well - rumours are that the ECB has a much higher internal inflation forecast than officially published and that they are currently having a strong distpute over ending QE early.

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This formation looks bullish but before a breakout it can keep creeping lower for days - it might actually just find its climax with the publication of US inflation numbers on Friday. If those surprise to the upside again then it will probably even ...

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Althogh true from the core, there are two flaws to this logic in my opinion. First Omicron is just one factor. Unless we end up in an armaggedon scenario, I would argue that much more important for the FED action is inflation and it will take time ...

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On which timeframe do you expect this to hold? H4 or daily close?

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Thx! Even a blind hen sometimes finds a grain of corn.

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1.1314 my guess

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Regardless of NFP the unemployment rate declined significantly making a quicker tapering likely. Hence US yields are now rising after having tumbled initially. This brought the dollar back, not sure what follows though...

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Thx, nice illustration! It also implies that if we settled the week between 1.1350 and 1.1369, though still below the resistance this week, it would be a technical breakthrough caused by the new week beginning. Would be an interesting situation.

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Retail longs sinking further, soon below 50%...

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haha, BAAAM, whatever it means

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I think kind of like this we will move to test 1.1380, i.e. bear trap at this point in my opinion.

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Here is a link to a screenshot where the statistic with retail longs was at 74% on Nov 16 and it just dropped significantly over the course of the last two days. Meaning retail is logging in long profits preparing for shorts or already opening ...

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This bull rallye looks good so far as retail longs are decreasing, now down to 56% from above 70%. But 1.1380 is a big obstacle on the weekly and on H4 as well, so might be worth a short, personally I will wait for an intraday reversal pattern ...

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As I laid out in a previous post it is all about what happens at 1.1380. If we get there I think it is worth trying a short, but if we get through I am in for a longer bullish try. If we close below 1.12 I am generally out for the time being and ...

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Thanks, when we touch 1.1280 I put SL to BE because statistically the probability of hitting the SL is high as the profit to loss ratio of the trade would be highly skewed around 12:1...

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