Because a buyer wants to establish his position at the cheapest possible price, so if he is buying big quickly, he will end up buying his full position at much higher prices rather than accumulating his full position slowly at more attractive ...

trading with 10 millions VS 1 million ??

Very interesting, however, you are looking at the whole thing from just 1 angle...The risk/reward ratio is NOT related to the Win/Loss ratio the way you stated.... What you are saying is that while the win/loss ratio moves from 0 to 100%, your ...

Expectancy is always zero

You can't rely on hedging as your stop loss as this would be a complicated stop loss strategy...The correlation factor you are talking about is changing all the time and might change during the course of your trade...For example, if you are ...

hedging - A new flavour of trading

Strategies offering 1:3 risk/reward trades are available, they are not a challenge or anything...However, as in the article, you will have to watch the expectancy of the strategy...I can give you a strategy offering you 1:5 risk/reward trades, ...

What do you think of Risk/Reward ratio?

And how would you handle losing streaks with such a strategy???? 6 losses in a row will yield the following: Starting at 100: Loss 1: 75 Loss 2: 75 - 75/4 = 56.25 Loss 3: 56.25 - 56.25/4 = 42.18 Loss 4: 42.18 - 42.18/4 = 31.63 Loss 5: 31.63 - ...

What do you think of Risk/Reward ratio?

Totally agree....The previously mentioned equation for the expectancy is just a theoritical one....Welcome to real life...Text book statistics is something and the wild real life of trading is another thing...Things to be taken into consideration, ...

What do you think of Risk/Reward ratio?

The rish/reward must be coupled with the win/loss probability of your own strategy...When those 2 factors are coupled together, you get the expectancy of your strategy...I am not sure who was the first one to introduce this concpet...Expectancy ...

What do you think of Risk/Reward ratio?

Agreed and thanks for the tip...You know that I capitalize on the fact that the market was extremely discounting the not-yet planted distant months...As we go in time, this discount must dissappear due to warehousing and carrying charges... Despite ...

Trade & Trader Idea, Concept & Circumstances

I am not replying to this because I consider myself an expert. I don't consider myself as experienced as many others...After all, I have been in the markets since April 2001 and this makes me only less than 7 years old, so I am still a kid ...

Does this NOT work?

There are many interpretations for the turtle and the scorpion story... 1- Don't risk too much in return of nothing 2- Always expect the un-expected (River Choppiness) 3- Don't expect a scorpion to act differently this time - A scorpion IS a ...

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Slighlty disagree with you...You don't lose because you know you are going to war...You lose because you KNOW you are going to war, but you still insist to GO unprepared for the battle... Thanks, Nader

Technical Analysis Fallacy

Haven't you noticed that the EUR/USD rallied strangly alone a week ago? In my opinion, this was factoring the next rate cut, in case it came...Most markets factored the awaited rate cut...Gold fell, too early, the US market rallied, just after the ...

Did I miss the train?

Well, I think we missed this trade Merlin...We should have been paying attention to oil at $98 for a possible short just as last time...All the hype in the market were talking about oil going to $120 and the market was actually having a tough time ...

I see oil reaching 100 USD?!

Ever Traded Calendar Spreads!!! - Update 6 — The spread is now standing at -4 and still improving...Since my original cost is around -62, I am adding more on dips towards -8. Looking at the spread duing the month before Dec07 expiration, which ...

Trade & Trader Idea, Concept & Circumstances

Well, the conference have had tens of professionals and their expectations can't be judged as crowd behavior or expectations. However, many are convinced of the idea you are mentioning. For example, during the conference, gold was hitting $835-$840 ...

The 20th Annual IFTA Conference - Sharm El-Shaikh

LOL....Of course there will be times where the price goes back up and moves against you, you can never be right 100% of the time. The only 2 facts of life, Death and Taxes. There is no other facts about the future other than those. Literally what ...

Trading Strategy

Pring didn't mention anything about a world based indicator, he mentioned that he uses a different set of economic indicators based on the lagging, coinciding and leading economic indicators in order to judge where are we in the economic cycle and ...

The 20th Annual IFTA Conference - Sharm El-Shaikh

Man, you don't enter when you correctly predict the market, you enter when you identify a turning point in the market. Let's say a certain market is in an uptrend and you keep predicting the market and the market is always trading above your ...

Trading Strategy

Day 2 - Session 3 - Robin Griffiths — Robin started his presentation with a world map overview of the ancient world highlighting that the economic center of the world was being Europe and Africa at that time. The economic center than shifted ...

The 20th Annual IFTA Conference - Sharm El-Shaikh

Day 2 - Session 3 - Robin Griffiths — Biography (From the conference material) Robin Griffiths has published commentaries on world stock markets, bonds, currencies and commodities, and presented his ideas regularly to a global client base for ...

The 20th Annual IFTA Conference - Sharm El-Shaikh