Strong confidence that green will hold for now

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So where do you short tomorrow? I still think with a median of two rate hikes in 2022 the USD should be able to decline. It would be too simple if the USD could keep appreciating on known facts about its central bank behaviour.

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I agree that it totally feels like one has to be USD long due to tapering. But then I always tend to think that this logic must be too easy as everybody knows about it.

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It's a valid scenario - for me it comes down to H4 close (if below 1.13 then fake breakout). One hour to go...

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Red line of chart from link above conquered if current H4 closes above 1.13.

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For the FOMC tomorrow it really boils down to the median number of rate hikes implied by the FED dotplot for 2022. Benchmark are two hikes (already priced). If this increased to three the USD would probably surge. If it stayed at two the USD should ...

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Many thanks! Not sure what your conclusion is but for me this looks bullish. The falling wedge made a false break to the downside and is about to gap back into the wedge in order to break it to the upside.

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Sure but buy the rumour sell the news, the peak is close. The next number will be much lower as energy will enter significantly negative and after January YoY inflation will most certainly decline due to technical base effects...

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For me the picture is still bullish. The green support is strong as it has been confirmed by two falling wedges. Also please note that at this point we have to cross the red resistance before we can touch white again. If bulls push it above red, ...

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For sure he is trapped, also because government itself took on massive amounts of debt. Same for the ECB though with Italy...

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This might already be priced. The wind of change rather blows in the opposite direction. The ECBs stance is about to change, making the euro a more risky funding currency for carry trades. And generally inflation will peak soon (Dec or Jan) due to ...

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Inflation slightly higher but mostly energy driven - this component will fade next month...

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The technical picture is clearly bullish. Falling Wedge landing on the previous resistance means that it is supposed to hold as a support. However, the inflation number coming out soon is of utmost importance and might blow every technical ...

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The expected 0.7% MoM is massive considering that the normal saisonality for Nov is -0.3%. (1% above seasonality means 12% annualised!). So people might wonder why inflation is still so high although energy dropped. However, as Nov average retail ...

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So far so good - I still think we will get a short spike below 1.13 before following the upwards trend line.

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My guess: Fake channel breakout to the downside then up.

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Yes but I didn't say hawkish, I said relatively less dovish might be enough for the euro to rise Damn my bullish euro bias is still too high. If we don't see EURUSD above 1.40 within the next two years I will give up on it I promise I ...

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Yes in principle you are right, currently the policy divergence is extreme. But forward looking the divergence could shrink because of two factors. First: US inflation is still primarily driven by energy and used cars. Without these components it ...

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But the ECB has been moving as of late, check the rumours.

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Well, the resistance held again but the question is if we repeat the story again and move the whole way to 1.1240. Personally I look for signs of an early reversal around 1.1293-1.1307, as indicated below. If we were to see an early reversal this ...

EURUSD only