Tiny sample -> Hot hands fallacy image image url url

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

If m/m CPI > 0.85%, what's most likely to happen next month: - all data n=912 - condition has a positive mean shift. n=55 image smth between 0.5 - 1.0? so, YoY will be ~3.11% (although it can be misleading due to Base Effect and m/m is sensitive ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Method A: April range 1.38 is 628 pips, which falls somewhere 35-40% image Method B: Conditional probability url Depends on reference point and current 'rolling body'.. gives about 22-24% chance end of month, ~11% by end of next week

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

I appreciate it, George. You know I value your work just as highly. Early in the year I made some calculations regarding the probability of seeing 1.41 by the end of April. I'll do it for 1.38 and post later today. The price has real troubles in ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

My March gap/Feb POC saga will most likely end soon. gonna close the set of EU longs, finally and start accumulating short pos both EU, GU image image ---bears should fight April's seasonality, which is very strong; stats were posted few times ...

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

CPI spiked 0.852% Marked prev. times image If anyone else follows Trump's 1st term 'similarities': Ranges: -14.14 (-13.82%), tripple bottom 26.01.18 - ~28.03.18 -14.35 (-13.08%), bottom 27.01.26 *called here - url image

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

All stats of that kind (candle shapes, price action, excursion) will be symmetrical around 50% if we try to estimate direction *slightly shifted due to predominant trend (bearish GU, bullish Gold, ...)

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

stopped+50 y'day POC image will sell again

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

image

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Idk, George, can't agree here.. I found 554 bearish bars with oh > 50 pips and 614 bullish with oh < 50 pips image

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

SL 1.343. I'll target 1/4th of yearly range 1.3333 As it looks like a new episode of Santa Trumpbara will be airing soon

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Reached. Risky short 1.348 Options activity pointing to 1.355

Cable Update (GBPUSD)

March high ~= Yearly open is likely the destination again image Mar 1/2 - 1.3320 Apr 1/2 - 1.3308

Cable Update (GBPUSD)