I agree with you that it's also true that the "gamble" is greater. You see, it's the same uncertainty that creates black swan events that also creates circumstances where the odds are likely in the traders favour even if exactly how favourable they ...

Trading vs gambling

Forex Trading (as it is practiced by most of people on this forum including myself) is speculation, not investing. Speculation is essentially a form of gambling. In my opinion, traditional forms of gambling have either one or both of the following ...

Trading vs gambling

I think that's just a myth, or at the very least not 100% correct. Entries can have an edge and therefore do (at least to some extend) matter. Don't get me wrong, I don't doubt that it's possible to have a profitable trading system that uses random ...

Gaining an edge from your exit

Thanks for your thoughts daytrading. Merging targets with time is something I've tried but I haven't (yet) written the results up to put on my blog. One exit method that worked well on long term trend following systems was waiting ten days after an ...

Gaining an edge from your exit

It probably does provide an edge if it's done right as it's just another method of taking advantage of a favourable price when it's there. I guess it could be tested easily enough though by defining exactly how long the candle had to be and then ...

Gaining an edge from your exit

So it sounds like you're going for a variation option 4 then? Taking a favourable price if/when you have it. You accept a price you deem as favourable (your asking price) the moment the market offers it. Yes, thanks That's something I'll be ...

Gaining an edge from your exit

Huge fan of your website Scott, I'm reading about your carry trade with great interest... Is it OandA you're using for this carry trade?

Caution: Math Geek at Work

Way of The Turtle & Trade Your Way To Financial Freedom are my favourite two. Bird Watching In Lion Country is also pretty good.

Forex Books you would Recommend

Thanks a lot for that, I'll try that and share any results that I think might be useful on the forum.

Measuring the 'edge' you get from a moving average

Nope, do you think they might be more effective? All I'm really trying to do is get the best simple indicator to tell me the direction of the medium to long term trend, i.e. where is the price more likely to be one month from now, higher or lower ...

Measuring the 'edge' you get from a moving average

I'm not convinced that all TA is toss, but I do believe it's misunderstood. In my opinion TA is only useful on medium to longer term time frames and (mostly) just in trend following systems. I also believe that what TA can tell you is pretty ...

Measuring the 'edge' you get from a moving average

It's always good to get a bit of disagreement, one of two things tend to happen with a disagreement. Either I become more confident about my idea if the person disagreeing with me can't present enough evidence to dissuade me from my view, or they do ...

Measuring the 'edge' you get from a moving average

Thanks for you reply, my questions to you and others that say there is no edge there are - 1. Do you believe that trading in the direction of the long-term trend provides an edge? 2. How else do you measure the direction of the trend other than by ...

Measuring the 'edge' you get from a moving average

Thanks, I will use that if/when I try an incorporate this edge into a complete trading system.

How do you gain, and measure, your trading system's statistical edge?

The two 'tips' that I find the most valuable on support and resistance are - 1. Like trends and everything else, the larger the time frame the support and resistance appears on, the more significant the support/resistance is. 2. The flatter the ...

Price reaction to support and resistance

This is like the prefect answer, I couldn't have put it better myself really. These guys know how to trade, but yet they can't...

Superstar Analysts - are these people making money?

That's how I feel about it too, 6 times my account over 7 years is something I would be very happy with - especially at 1% for every 200 pips which is leverage of less than 1:1. When I first started trading I started out spread betting, aiming for ...

How do you gain, and measure, your trading system's statistical edge?