Well if you are a trend-follower, just avoid trading if ADX is between 0 and 25 and you will eliminate a few false breakouts. It is not a perfect indicator but at least it will help you locate and stay out of most trading-range market conditions.

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

If you have a profitable backtested system you are ALREADY outsmarting a lot of traders, assuming you follow its trading rules with discipline. Let's say you are using a simple moving average cross-over system like the one I described yesterday. ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

I believe that most new traders cannot believe for one second that it possible to make money consistently simply with two lousy moving averages. No, they think that trading needs to be complicated to be profitable. They need to have 3,000 indicators ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

I think Nubcake will eventually make money in the Forex one day... by simply running out of non-backtested systems that do not work!

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Thelws, just wait a little longer and Nubcake will simply tell you that there is NO such thing as a trend, period.

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

They do, I just posted the proof a few hours ago, now do your part and show us that they don't, using 198 months worth of data and 21 different markets. Go ahead Professor. Wrong again. MA work precisely because there is an irrefutable logic behind ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Not sure I quite understand your post Sauron, could you please be more specific? Thanks. And now back to the charts, there is some serious action on the EUR/CHF...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Absolutely not! A serious backtest ALWAYS begins with an idea, a theory of some kind. Example : The market trends. Or the market quickly reverses when it touches a support/resistance level And THEN we try to find a way to capture that trend using ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

So let me get this straight, you need 57 consecutive days of 1 minute bar (almost 3 trading months !) to day trade the Forex on the 1 min charts? Do you have any idea how hugely insane this sounds?

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

One day, someone starred at some charts for a long long time and said : "Eureka, every freely-traded market has a trend and is not completely random!" The next day he said "Wait a minute, if the market has a tendency to trend, then it could be ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

My friend, 16 years and half of daily bars on 21 different markets are the equivalent of 83,160 bars! ( 198 months total x 20 trading days each month x 21 markets) In statistical terms it is an extremely large and meaningful sample to base a serious ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

If we follow Nubcake's "logic" then ANY profitable backtested trading system is by definition curve-fitted, since we must necessarily give some value to each of its parameters. And since it is a curve-fitted system it is also and necessarily a ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Redlion must surely be so busy dealing with his margin calls that the cannot even type a single word and express his ideas in a coherent and articulate manner.

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Yes.

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Hi Hayseed, To eliminate a lot of false breakouts, the simple moving average cross over system described above wants the price to be not only above the 13 and 39 MA (for long trades), but also above the price recorded two months ago (40 trading ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Here is a profitable backtested forex system, it is called the Keltner Channel breakout system and can be found on the March 2011 issue of the (freely available) Currency Trader Magazine. The strategy was tested on daily price data from June 6, 2000 ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Most traders lose precisely because they do NOT use a proven system at all, they just trade almost randomly and like to quickly grab a few pips while letting their losses run wild. More importantly, even if you show them a decent trading system, ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Always a pleasure to read your straight-to-the-point posts, Custos. Yes backtesting is one of the keys to success in the trading arena, without it the trader has no way of knowing the predictive power of his system, if any, or the maximum and ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Absolutely not. Yes it is possible to curve fit a system for the year 1985 or 1994 or 2010 and for a specific instrument, like gold or the DAX or the EUR/CAD, but again it is IMPOSSIBLE to curve-fit 16 and a half years of data on 21 different ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Actually it is the exact opposite. There is no way on earth that a losing system is going to make money "if you give it enough friggin years and the right ruleset". It is like saying that with enough time each casino player is going to bankrupt the ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?