Be careful Turveyd, a robust trading system must work over an extended period of time and with the same exact trading rules. If a trader needs to frequently "fine-tune" his system depending on recent market conditions then "Houston we have a ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

You need of course a backtesting software like Omega Trade Station to test your trading ideas with 15 years of data, but the test itself could just take a few seconds/minutes to complete. And once you start testing trading systems you will quickly ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

In trading, confidence will always come from your backtesting homework. For instance if your backtest reveals that your trading system had been averaging 200 pips a month per lot per currency for the last 15 years I can assure you that you will have ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Not at all Custos, terribly sorry if I gave you that impression. That's exactly the same approach I am using. Most traders like to diversify by trading different markets but personally I like to diversify by trading different non-correlated systems, ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Here are the results of another simple trend-following system. It's called the Aberration system and it is one of the top 10 trading systems of all time, according to Futures Truth, and independent service that tests and ranks publicly offered ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Custos, I started studying the currency market back in the 70's, when the Bretton Woods system was still in place, so I know a few things about portfolio management. You are trying to obtain a smoother equity curve and reduce drawdowns by combining ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Again, if you trade trend following systems you need to trade a lot of markets in order to capture 1, 2 or 3 mega trends a year and make money (that's the whole idea behind the Turtles system by the way). You cannot simply trade the Yen, the ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Oh I see, but just keep in mind that if you trade 10 different trading systems at the same time and each system is making 10% a year for example you are NOT making 100% a year (10 times 10%) but still 10%! Amazingly, most traders have a hard time ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Bet $100 1,000 times on Black at the roulette and you will lose about $5263 (because of the zero and double zero). Now, does it mean that betting on RED is better? Nope, bet $100 1,000 times on Red and you will still lose about $5263 on average. ...

What if I reversed all my orders?

Not so fast JZW, Please reread the trading rules carefully, here is the first rule: Buy on the open when the 13-day moving average of closes crosses from below the 39-day moving average and yesterday's close is greater than the close of 40 days ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Hi Almo and thanks for your input, Even though interest rates can and do move the currency market, I fail to see how they could have any influence whatsoever on the profitability of a moving average cross over system like the one I described. Are ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

There is no way on earth that the trend (our statistical edge) is going to simply disappear from the currency charts. The economy of each country does not change overnight, that's why it usually takes months and even years for a currency pair to ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Sir, there is absolutelty no need for that kind of behavior and talk. Even though I do not agree with Nubcake's ideas most of the time, he has the right to fully express himself in this Forex forum. And like the great French writer, historian and ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Hi Troikaone1, If you backtest a lot of trend-following trading systems you will not find any significant difference between a simple moving average system and an exponential moving average system, as they are both designed to capture one thing and ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Superb post, Thelws! And yes, money management IS the key! In fact it is ridiculously easy to turn ANY profitable trading system into a losing system just by changing the parameters of its money management strategy, especially the stop ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Marvicos, I can assure you that successful trading has absolutely nothing to do with the number of hours you spend in front of your charts. Most people trade because they do not want to work a regular job anymore, so if you spend more than 2 hours a ...

How do I make millions trading Forex?

Sure, you can even double or triple your Forex account in 24 hours or less, no doubt about that. Currencies routinely move 1% on average each day. So for example if you buy EUR/USD and the price moves just 1% in your favor (with a 100:1 leverage) ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

50 to 100% a year? Are you sure this is not a typo Custos? Wow, even the top traders in the world cannot consistently double their money every year or else in 20 years they would have $2,196,431,025,250 in the bank, starting with only $5,000. That ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

A robust trading system does not "fail in the future". A system either has a trading edge or it doesn't, time has virtually no effect on its profitability. It a system fails after a few months or a couple of years then it was a losing system from ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?

Really? Well try to manually backtest even the simplest trading system with 10 years of data in 25 currency pairs on the 1 min time frame and an entire lifetime would not be enough to finish the test, asuming you do not make mistakes. And of course ...

Why exactly do EMA crossover systems not work?