Quick check in..I've closed all my USDTRY short positions for now. I may open more during Asia, but I have a feeling the winds may be changing here. More to come later. Scotty B

USD/TRY

One last thought about the upcoming session and stops (beautiful pool of liquidity). The green line is where the stops will be, large limit orders above the stops. If we see a shakeout I'll open a position around 2.1210. As always, I'm not God, I ...

USD/TRY

Thoughts and observations regarding today’s monetary policy committee meeting report: Inflation to remain high, the depreciated Lira is still having an adverse effect on the inflation numbers. Inflation up in all categories from food prices to ...

USD/TRY

Because this trade is longer term I probably won't post every day unless the sentiment changes. Tomorrow the CBRT will release their quarterly inflation report. For the sake of the trade we of course want to see little relief in the inflation rate. ...

USD/TRY

image So we are nearing the end of the trading week. Not bad all in all. As of now the trade appears to be valid. We did see some stop volatility during the asian/london session that was pinned down quickly. I've highlighted those stop areas in ...

USD/TRY

Okay, just one other quick thought. Often times following news like we had today the market direction seems obvious. But not so fast, we are in shakeout territory. We could still see a spike turned pin bar.

USD/TRY

Hi Islander, I haven't spoken with you in a few years. Sure hope you are doing well. First off, I was incorrect about the Central Bank's schedule for releasing interest rate info. So, to be clear, when the bank holds a MPC meeting to discuss rates, ...

USD/TRY

Here is a calendar of Turkey's monetary policy meetings. They have a meeting scheduled for tomorrow 042414 and will release a summary of that meeting on 043014. We can largely expect the markets to continue drifting in range until the results of ...

USD/TRY

image Okay, slowly building a short USDTRY position. This will be a carry for me if all works out. I'm putting a position together that will give the market a lot of room to do its it's thing. If the market responds as I'm hoping it will, I'll add ...

USD/TRY

I'm not too concerned with anything technical beyond the round number I mentioned in my first post. Investors have been willing to go long the Lira due to the rate differential. This is a risky trade due to political tension in Turkey, but if the ...

USD/TRY

Haven't been to FF for a while. From looking at chart on the 1st post I'd say the pull back was profit taking. The exponential drive up was accumulation + stops, accumulation + stops ect and then profits were taken. Not rocket science.

Why does price make a pullback after a break?

One interesting thing I've done with moving averages is several averages of the original moving average. You basically get a very smooth curve going that gives interesting signals. I'd post a pic if I could but I'm on a computer that won't let me ...

Try displaced moving averages, it works!

Hey, I'm not familiar with that particular program but I wanted to be a little more clear. By back testing I don't mean going through the chart and fibbing in different ways, maybe that's not what you meant. The chart time should be the brain ...

Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

Back testing will quickly tell you if a certain pattern has merit...and quickly too! One interesting thing about a fib is that they can indeed assist in simple things like setting stops. If you are measuring current price data, the proportional ...

Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

There are lots of edges... As I continue on my own trading journey my mind has changed about a lot of things. As I've learned time series/string analysis, I've found some cool stats in how the market "unfolds." I don't think you guys have anything ...

Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

One more passing thought that I've come to appreciate: It's take's a loaded freight train a while to stop.

Probability Paradox!?!

Alright, nothing in the living room is broken. By weighting the random data we can achieve a "net-flow" much like in the real market. One simple principle that undercuts the random market idea is the fact that it's a normal market procedure to split ...

Probability Paradox!?!

Howdy Folks — I just quickly put together a spreadsheet that will create random candlestick stock charts. Well, it's a little more cumbersome than that thanks to excel. Basically on the master input sheet you can change the randbetween ...

Probability Paradox!?!

I think Adal is actually using orderflow information on those charts, those are not trendlines. Correct me if I'm wrong Adal, but are those not periods of net positive and negative flows. I notice during one of those consolidations that there are ...

How to properly use Technical Analysis