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TimmyBTrades commented May 26, 2026Breman saved the shorts, kiwi would be going to the moon right now otherwise
NZ: OCR held at 2.25%
- TimmyBTrades commented May 12, 2026
Warsh is only considered a hawk because he opposed accommodative policy during the GFC recovery, and threw a fit/resigned over QE. He has stated that he believes AI productivity increases will give the Fed room to cut, which may be true but is ...
US Senate confirms Kevin Warsh to be Federal Reserve Governor
- TimmyBTrades commented May 11, 2026
This is jockeying for position at the end to extract concessions, no involved party has an interest in restarting hot conflict. Dumb conflict that accomplished little, but market doesn't moralize and can see the light at the end of the tunnel.
Trump weighs military action against Iran: Axios
- TimmyBTrades commented May 3, 2026
Intervention? Must be, that candle came out of nowhere
Dollar/Yen Falls Below 156, Continuing Downward Trend
- TimmyBTrades commented May 2, 2026
Glad he’s keeping an open mind about the deal
Trump: I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us
- TimmyBTrades commented Apr 30, 2026
Trump appointee and registered Republican Powell?
Inside the Fed: Powell vows he won’t be a ‘shadow chair,’ but a Warsh clash will be tough to...
- TimmyBTrades commented Apr 29, 2026
Exactly, moreso signaling than actual dissent. Was wondering the same thing as well lol, not nearly the magnitude of move I expected
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
- TimmyBTrades commented Apr 29, 2026
Damn, last time with 4 dissents was 1992
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
- TimmyBTrades commented Apr 29, 2026
Ceasefire limited to Victory Day holiday only
Putin ready for V-day ceasfire w/Ukraine; Putin, Trump discussed Iran, Ukraine
- TimmyBTrades commented Apr 23, 2026
Ah wonderful, now only the fanatics can negotiate
Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf has resigned from the negotiating team, according to...
- TimmyBTrades commented Apr 20, 2026
Script is set: hawkish nomination process then dovish once he takes the chair
Fed Chair nominee Warsh set to commit to be ‘strictly independent’ on rates - Politico
- TimmyBTrades commented Apr 7, 2026
Great to see, Peace on Earth!
Trump: I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks
- TimmyBTrades commented Mar 16, 2026
Emergency meeting 2 days before the meeting?
Trump on Fed: Should have special meeting to cut rates right now
- TimmyBTrades replied Mar 11, 2026
Close on the CPI print, would take that odds every time, and broken down by subgroup it broadly confirmed the consensus estimates for the points above. For Friday: Expect core PCE MoM at consensus, 0.4%. Shelter weight is ~50% what it is in CPI and ...
NFP Projection Logs (and Other Misc)
- TimmyBTrades replied Mar 10, 2026
I like >2.4% US CPI YoY at 38% on Kalshi. 2.4 is the safe prediction but the distribution of outcomes skews upwards enough to take a shot on ~1.6:1 Some points on this: Core projected lower than headline MoM due to fuel cost tick up in Feb vs Jan, ...
NFP Projection Logs (and Other Misc)
- TimmyBTrades replied Mar 8, 2026
Fed funds future still stable ~1.5, but holy oil. Think this is setting up for a cl collapse on any de-escalation signaling. Once oil and tariff upward impulses clear inflation likely back to slow drift down. Going to enter a small SPY debit call ...
NFP Projection Logs (and Other Misc)
- TimmyBTrades replied Mar 6, 2026
Data quality still bad so didn't finalize model, but was looking around 30k, which would have been a big miss vs. print lol Fed will need to see next print to confirm, but >1.5 looks to be holding
NFP Projection Logs (and Other Misc)
- TimmyBTrades replied Mar 5, 2026
Fed funds futures pricing in ~1.5 cuts through Dec currently, vs. ~2.1 before the conflict started, overreaction to Iran conflict? Potential overreaction imo, $80 is not catastrophic and 1) conflict offramps soon, or 2) Iran's ability to disrupt the ...
NFP Projection Logs (and Other Misc)
- TimmyBTrades commented Feb 11, 2026
* Members of President Trump's team have offered multiple warnings that employment gains may disappoint Wall Street* I’ve been hoodwinked!
The US Employment Situation -- January 2026