This is my first post in a longer time. I won’t be posting regularly, as I’m still mostly focused on other things. Still, I wanted to share some work for the new year, based on something I actually studied over six months ago. I’m referring to a ...

Where's The Edge?

Thank you so much. I'm unfortunately busy with more important stuff atm.

Markov Models and Forex

Hey W0lfram, I really enjoy the way you always manage to put a nice spin on data analysis (something I don’t quite pull off myself). The idea of testing quantiles instead of just bluntly looking at upruns and downruns feels, to be honest, like a way ...

Markov Models and Forex

What a shame I haven't seen your posts earlier! However, I need to digest this first. The idea of testing how the “expectation” changes over different time intervals is a way to see how long one should trust the signal. Unfortunately, running such ...

Markov Models and Forex

So the question remains: what’s the difference between ‘using price prediction’ and ‘following the market’ (which is essentially what CP & Co. are doing as well with their EMA-based indicators)? Yes, a philosophical question, isn't it?! ...

Markov Models and Forex

Thank you so much for your excellent question, acetrader! I actually read your message yesterday and had some time to reflect on it. Still, I went ahead and ran the test today, shifting each EMA back in time by half of its calculation period. We ...

Markov Models and Forex

Dear carddard, thank you very much for your reply! What you wrote under point 3 is something that keeps being suggested, along the lines of “trade long in an uptrend when the swing also indicates an upward movement.” I think I’ve tried something ...

Markov Models and Forex

Right-click on every indicator manually, select the indicator's properties and set the same fixed minimum and maximum. Hope it helps!

Markov Models and Forex

Hey carddard, thanks a lot for your reply to that old thread. It shows you’re genuinely interested in the topic itself and that you have the courtesy not to leave even older but interesting questions unanswered. Kudos! What I'd still be curious ...

Markov Models and Forex

Dear carddard, I have to admit that I only read Riskcuit’s initial post and then focused more closely on yours. Sorry I haven’t been following the thread more attentively... Your post strikes me as very insightful — an excellent analysis and a great ...

A Simple Mean Reversion Strategy

Some nice words! I agree - I also tried your idea (in a modified version - just exiting in my setup the losses and letting the currently profitable trades run. However, it didn't really increase the outcome. Here's my current code (which can be of ...

Where's The Edge?

No worries. If you like to, I also could add my R codes here ... I believe we can say that the market can either follow an uptrend or a downtrend - but it can also move within a range. Since defining ranges is a bit more complex, I initially focused ...

Where's The Edge?

Dear Riskcuit, I'm really sorry I hadn’t seen or followed your thread earlier. Big thanks to carddard for pointing me to it through the last post. Now, “Where is the edge?” - that’s truly the best of all questions. It’s a question I’ve been chasing ...

Where's The Edge?

Well, not my intention. Just mean that it's rude to post something off-topic sonstantly in a thread that's on something else.

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Yeah, why not. Never did it that way but just thought that randomly sampling common TF candlesticks and adding it to previous candlesticks should work, too. However, in the past I was always hesitant because I thought maybe I'd destroy some kind of ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

What do you mean? Yes, I also incorporated signals in different trends. Is that skewed?

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Wrong. At least if we're discussing about CP's "concept". The trick is to not predict. The trick is to follow price! Tbh, I've played a lot with candlestick pattern in my early days. But once you start checking out whether one pattern gives you an ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Great posts as always! Could we consider this being permutation, generating a market sampling distribution?!

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Of course, nobody knows what s/he intended with these posts. But due to some degrees I can see some logic in it. I mentioned it before: Within any frame you choose, you can expect certain price movements: a movement from the open to the close, but ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Dear Wizard, nice if trading like this works for you. But I believe you can also improve it if you don't just have a look at single candlesticks. View it as a running candlestick. With every new minute, consider alle 1M candlesticks from the last 12 ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick