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The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the May 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows inflation expectations declined at the short-term horizon, remained unchanged at the medium-term horizon, and increased at the longer-term horizon. Labor market expectations were mixed. Households’ expectations for the stock market improved, reaching a three-year high. Households were also more optimistic about their financial situation a year from now. The main findings from the May 2024 Survey are: Inflation • Median inflation expectations at the one-year horizon declined to 3.2% in May from 3.3% in April, were unchanged at the three-year horizon at 2.8%, and increased at the five-year horizon to 3.0% from 2.8%. The survey’s measure of disagreement across respondents (the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile of inflation expectations) decreased at the one-year horizon, increased at the three-year horizon, and remained unchanged at the five-year horizon. post: US NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations May: 3.17% (prev 3.26%) post: NY FED: MAY THREE-YEAR AHEAD EXPECTED INFLATION UNCHANGED AT 2.8%.
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Wednesday afternoon, the fate of global financial markets will hang on an array of dots that give clues into how much rate-cutting the Federal Reserve will deliver this year. But Wall Street may be putting too much weight on the so-called dot plot. Why it matters: The dots create a lot of market noise, but they contain less true signal about the policy ...