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In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 11–12, 2024, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2024 to 2026 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. post: FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’24 AT 5.1%; PREV. 4.6% FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’25 AT 4.1%; PREV. 3.9% FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’26 AT 3.1%; PREV. 3.1% FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST LONGER-RUN AT 2.8%; PREV. 2.6% post: FED POLICYMAKERS SEE END-2024 PCE INFLATION AT 2.6% VERSUS 2.4% IN MARCH PROJECTION; CORE SEEN AT 2.8% VERSUS 2.6% post: FED OFFICIALS RAISE 2024 INFLATION FORECAST TO 2.6%, UP FROM 2.4% IN MARCH FORECAST FED OFFICIALS SEE 4% UNEMPLOYMENT AT END OF 2024, UNCHANGED FROM MARCH FORECAST FED OFFICIALS SEE 2.1% GDP GROWTH IN 2024, UNCHANGED FROM MARCH FORECAST
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post: *POWELL: INFLATION HAS EASED SUBSTANTIALLY BUT IS STILL TOO HIGH post: *POWELL: FED GENERALLY EXPECTS GDP TO SLOW FROM LAST YEAR'S PACE post: FED'S POWELL: PRIVATE DOMESTIC FINAL PURCHASES, A CLEARER SIGNAL, IS STILL STRONG post: *POWELL: PACE OF JOB GROWTH IS STILL STRONG BUT SLOWER THAN 1Q post: POWELL: UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REMAINS LOW