ECB ready to hike, just not today

From think.ing.com

Despite another stretch higher in oil prices, markets are sticking to the view that the European Central Bank will hold the deposit rate at 2.25% at this meeting, in line with our own thinking. September is more likely to see a hike, and indeed markets are pricing in 23bp then. One could argue that front-loading another hike now makes sense. Over the past few years, however, the ECB has not acted without fully telegraphing a move in the weeks before the meeting. With longer-term inflation expectations still well-anchored, the ECB can hold rates steady for now. The 10Y inflation swap rose on the back of higher oil ... (full story)