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Bitcoin: Four-Year Cycle or Macro Asset?
When will the Bitcoin bear market end? Among market participants, there are two common perspectives. Believers in the “four-year cycle” theory see Bitcoin halving events as the key driver of price movements and expect the current bear market to play out like those in the past. Historically, Bitcoin’s price has bottomed about a year after the cyclical peak and roughly 2.5 years after the halving event. Cumulative drawdowns have averaged ~80%.1 The four-year cycle theory implies that Bitcoin’s price could fall further, with a bottom in September or October. The alternative perspective is that Bitcoin has ... (full story)
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- Jul 22, 9:19am | 1 hr 45 min ago Posted byFundamental Analysis50
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