The ECB is set to leave rates unchanged at its July meeting with markets pricing only a few basis points of tightening next week. Despite the re-escalation in the Middle East and the subsequent rise in crude oil prices, even the hawks have stopped short of making a case that this is a live policy meeting. Joachim Nagel, president of the Bundesbank, said yesterday that rates are currently at an “appropriate” level. Indeed, there is some sense of balance coming into this meeting. The US-Iran deal was signed soon after the ECB’s June hike and prompted a retracement in energy prices. That was followed by a soft euro area ... (full story)