As the second half of 2026 begins, Citi Research's outlook remains centered on a global economy that continues to expand despite geopolitical uncertainty, moderating inflation, and ongoing supply-side pressures. While growth expectations have softened, our base case remains one of continued expansion rather than recession. At the same time, the AI investment cycle continues to influence corporate spending, earnings expectations, and broader market performance. While the global outlook remains constructive, we continue to monitor several key risks, including higher energy costs, supply-chain disruptions, and the ... (full story)