Now, as energy costs decline, it’s tempting to think consumer spending can accelerate. But that might be too optimistic a take. Despite headline resilience, the energy shock, coupled with persistent non-energy prices, have weakened the US consumer and their capacity to absorb further price pressures. That’s not enough to break our cautiously optimistic U.S. narrative. The K-shape and ultra-resilient high income consumer is still in play, so too is a tight labor market that will keep Americans employed. But, businesses may increasingly find their ability to pass prices through to end consumers is eroding for the first ... (full story)