Optimism is rising that we are inching closer to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but even with a deal, global energy prices will likely remain elevated until at least early 2027. European and Asian inventory rebuilding will keep a strong bid in markets through the second half of the year. At the same time, uncertainty over the scale of damage to infrastructure in the region and the willingness of shipping companies to put their vessels back potentially into harms way, should the deal subsequently fail, limits supply. In consequence, we expect no real relief from higher prices this year. The US economy is more ... (full story)