On May 22, we raised our estimate of the probability that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to 75%, up from the 55% we published the morning of May 14’s Senate Banking markup. We are now lowering that estimate to 60%. Our concern is less about the substance of the bill, which cleared committee 15 to 9 with bipartisan support and was placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1, than about the number of days left to act on it. Timing is the binding constraint: We continue to believe the bill needs to pass the Senate (and probably the House) before the August recess, which is now scheduled to begin at the end ... (full story)