The U.S. consumer has remained surprisingly resilient through the first few months of the energy shock, with inflation adjusted spending still chugging along at pace broadly consistent with late last year (Chart 1). To some degree, the ongoing resilience reflects the fact that households have benefited from larger tax refunds, which are providing a near-term cushion against higher energy prices. However, the tax changes included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) skew to higher income taxpayers, consistent with the narrative that lower-income earners are already feeling pressure. Even assuming a longer-term ... (full story)