Here we go again! If the reports are true, the US and Iran are close to a deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Thorny issues of uranium and sanctions relief appear unanswered. Those are frankly evergreen sentences that could have been written at almost any point over the past two months. Still, let’s take it at face value. If the Strait reopens and oil flows resume, does everything simply snap back to normal? Markets are already leaning that way. Stock markets are at new highs. And two-year swap rates – a proxy for short-term policy expectations – have tracked crude prices almost tick-for-tick through this crisis, ... (full story)