Here we are again, on the monthly CPI roller-coaster. Consensus coming into the day was +0.60% m/m headline, +0.33% core, pushing the y/y numbers to 3.7% and 2.7% respectively. The headline print will obviously be flattered by energy prices again, but the core number may seem surprising since we have been running between 0.196% (last month) and 0.313% (last July) for the last year. Why so high? To be honest, the core forecast seems lowish to me: this is the month where the shelter rebound is to take place. As a reminder, the BLS methods from the missed month of CPI in October implied no change for shelter, and that’s ... (full story)