The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at this week’s meeting. The CME Group puts the odds that the FOMC will continue to target the federal funds rate within the 3.5 to 3.75 percent range at 99.5 percent. But the near certainty regarding this week’s decisions masks the growing problem Fed officials face. The rise in energy prices tied to the conflict with Iran is the sort of negative supply shock that makes monetary policy especially difficult. It puts upward pressure on inflation even as it threatens to slow growth and weaken employment. That puts the Federal Reserve ... (full story)