Investors anticipate the path of rate policy to remain essentially flat over the next year, despite rising risks to the inflation outlook. The Federal Open Market Committee needs to update its communication with a world that is about to see higher inflation. Annual price increases have been above the Fed's 2% target for five years, and the Iran war oil shock is adding to structural changes and supply constraints across the U.S. economy. Labor supply is less abundant, due to global demographics trends and America's immigration crackdown. Global trade integration had produced disinflationary forces for the past two ... (full story)