Every crypto desk in London has repeated the same reflex trade this spring: when Iran rattles the Strait of Hormuz, sell Bitcoin. It is a tidy narrative, and it is increasingly wrong. Each successive Iranian shock since the 28 February 2026 strikes has produced a smaller Bitcoin drawdown than the last, and the 12% network hashrate drop after US and Israeli forces knocked out most of Iran’s 427,000 mining devices was fully absorbed inside two weeks — primarily by American operators quietly adding capacity in Texas and Wyoming. Having tracked three Iran escalation cycles since early 2025, I have watched the amplitude ... (full story)