Financial markets have been partying like it’s 1999 to borrow a phrase from the artist formerly known as Prince. Hints of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension, a new Israel/Lebanon ceasefire, and FOMO unexpectedly brought equities to new record highs this week, extended by Friday’s opening of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. The S&P 500 hit a new high above 7,100—up about 43% from the post-tariff low set just over a year ago (Chart 1). The S&P Volatility Index (VIX) fell below pre-war levels to 17, creating an eerie sense of calm. Investors cheered the near $30 drop in WTI crude oil futures from last week’s high and scaled ... (full story)