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Dire Straits: The Central Bank Calculus of the Iran Oil Shock
The war in Iran has produced the largest supply disruption to global energy markets in modern history. At its peak, the price of Brent crude – the global benchmark for oil prices – had reached over $118 per barrel. Prices have fallen sharply following the U.S., Israel, and Iran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire on April 7th, but at $98 per-barrel, remain considerably above pre-conflict levels (Chart 1). Through all the recent volatility, broader financial conditions have only tightened on the margin. But the situation remains incredibly fluid and could quickly re-escalate should negations on a longer-term peace ... (full story)