Here is the situation as April begins. A war is affecting one of the world's most important oil chokepoints. Brent crude is trading above US$100. And the Federal Reserve (Fed), which spent much of 2025 engineering a soft landing, is now facing an inflation threat driven less by wages, services or the domestic economy, and more by energy. It is watching an oil shock. The Fed funds rate sits at 3.50% to 3.75%. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is on 28 and 29 April and the key question for markets is not whether the Fed will cut, it is whether the Fed can cut, or whether the energy shock may have ... (full story)