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RBA Financial Stability Review March 2026
Escalation of conflict in the Middle East has sparked a sharp increase in volatility in global financial markets, following a period of benign market conditions. Volatility has been particularly pronounced in energy and other commodity markets, and this has spilled over to other asset classes. Just prior to the escalation of the conflict, some firms had experienced sharp equity price declines as investors reassessed the prospects for AI to affect business models. Conditions for private credit markets had also become more challenging. Yet risk premia in global equity and credit markets have remained fairly low by ... (full story)
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In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 1718, 2026, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2026 to 2028 and over the longer run. Each participants projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policyincluding a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run valueand assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participants assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. Appropriate monetary policy is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. The Fed held rates steady. There was one dissent. The median rate dot was unchanged, as was the 12-7 split on cuts vs. no cuts. The median core PCE inflation forecast revised to 2.7% from 2.5%. The median long-run rate dot revised up to 3.1%. pic.twitter.com/5qflQVsz6A FED PROJECTIONS SHOW SEVEN POLICYMAKERS SAW NO RATE CUT IN 2026, ONE SEES RATES HIGHER IN 2027 FED POLICYMAKERS SEE 4.4% UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT END OF 2026 VERSUS 4.4% IN DECEMBER PROJECTIONS
The Swiss National Bank is leaving the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0%. Banks' sight deposits held at the SNB will be remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold. The discount for sight deposits above this threshold still stands at 0.25 percentage points. Given the conflict in the Middle East, the SNB's willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased. The SNB thereby counters a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability in Switzerland. The conditional inflation forecast for the coming quarters is higher than in December due to the rise in energy prices. Medium-term inflationary pressure, however, has remained virtually unchanged since the last monetary policy assessment. The monetary policy helps to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability and supports economic development. The SNB will continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust its monetary policy if necessary, in order to ensure price stability over the medium term. As expected, inflation has risen slightly since the last monetary policy assessment, from 0.0% in November to 0.1% in February. This increase was driven in particular by higher goods inflation. With the rise in energy p SNB: HAS ELEVATED READINESS TO INTERVENE IN CURRENCY MARKETS IF NEEDED