We have not made any significant changes to our economic growth forecast. Recent data reinforce our view that real GDP growth remains on a solidly positive trajectory, largely reflecting sturdy consumer spending and a strengthening rate of business investment. Looking ahead, we continue to foresee an above-consensus pace of real GDP growth for 2026 with expansionary fiscal policy, less restrictive monetary policy, robust AI investment and reduced economic policy uncertainty. Labor market conditions remain far from energetic, yet recent months' data have shown signs of stabilization. Against a backdrop of solid ... (full story)