Our base case is for further gradual attrition in job numbers, rather than a sharper deterioration. The public sector, which saw staffing numbers rise 0.6% last year, is likely to be less of an offset to private-sector weakness this year, given more muted increases in departmental spending. What about unemployment? BoE hawks would point to the sharp drop in net migration over recent months as an argument that the jobs market could re-tighten over the coming months. That remains a risk. But we think the significant increase in migration seen over the preceding few years is still the dominant story. Several (mostly ... (full story)