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The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters - First quarter of 2026
In the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the first quarter of 2026, expectations for headline HICP inflation were unchanged from the previous round for 2026, 2027 and the longer term.[ 1 ] Expectations for core inflation, as measured by the HICP excluding energy and food (HICPX), also remained unchanged. Headline inflation was expected to decrease from the 2.1% observed in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026 before returning to 2.0% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. Expectations for 2028 were not included in the previous round (conducted in the fourth quarter of 2025). Longer-term HICP inflation expectations (for 2030) ... (full story)
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