Our view on central banks

From think.ing.com

After four 25bp interest rate cuts in 2024 and three in 2025, we forecast only two 25bp rate cuts from the Fed in 2026. The economy continues to report healthy growth, and equity markets are at all-time highs. Still, there are concerns about the resilience of the jobs market and the concentration risk of the growth story, where high-income household spending and tech investment dominate. Inflation has been better behaved than feared in the wake of the President’s tariffs on foreign-made goods, and we expect lower gasoline prices, slowing housing rents and cooling wage growth to allow it to continue trending down ... (full story)